Doug, understand your feelings on the subject and take no offense.
I doubt you will be able to glean any wisdom from this thread, and defintely none from CNN/CNBC. As far as I can tell trials are contests of wits and presentation, ala OJ trial. So the outcome here is by no means a forgone conclusion, even if you had access and understood the minutiae.
The only thing I know for sure, is a lawsuit by these parties is not as much about some past foul - but about the future. I can guarantee DEC's CEO didn't just file for some royalties no matter how large the potential claim. DEC is trying it's hardest to regain it's past dominance and competiveness. CEO's are by very definition strategic thinkers, if the suit delays Merced what would Microsofts options be if it must have a highend platform to compete against the likes of Sun.
I wouldn't short either one, as it would be a very long term trial - assuming no out of court settlement. I will be watching Microsoft's reaction i.e. product announcements for Alpha, since I really believe this is the long term goal. Intel is bound to do very well over the course of a few years, even with a suit hanging over them. As for DEC, if Microsoft accelerates more native releases of its applications, like a full Office suite, not just Word - they have a good chance to regain share. |
