Jacob,
The last part of your post is the most important to remember. Even if I'm off by an order of magnitude, QCOM is a good investment today.
When I first started the 10K in 2005 tagline, we were trading around $400 per share, and having never held a stock that was worth that much, I seriously considered selling. At that time, Jacobs and Grannis did an interview with Radio Wall Street extolling the potential for QCOM over the next decade, with 2G, 3G, HDR, Omnitracks, G*, Digital Cinema, telematics, meter reading, and all the other things they saw going forward. I extrapolated the price then, I believe we had around a 100 forward PE, and looked at the expected size of the CDMA market in 2005 (1 to 2 billion devices/users), the royalty, chipsets, and spinoffs, and balanced that against what they were making off of just the existing systems.
Look at it this way, if QCOM can make $1 per year (roughly) off of 60-70 million CDMA devices/users, how much can they make off of 1-2 billion?
If the Q maintains a decent royalty rate, and can continue to sell ASICS into the market, I don't see why they can't reach my target (other than the general pablum about a 1.7 trillion dollar market cap going against the laws of nature, yadda, yadda, yadda).
DWB
Q2.5K/Y2K+5 |
