I meant the MSO, or Telco, needs to figure out where the future TV broadcast model is heading. Right now, it's
overwhelmingly analog. It has to go to digital-- But how? That is the KEY question.
Sorry, Mike. I'm still confused either on where you stand, or by your logic. Analog or digital? This issue is moot; its all gonna be digital. The FCC has mandated that digital become the standard for broadcast video by the end of the decade. The only problem is the reluctance by broadcasters to move in that direction.
The present timetable was to introduce HDTV (a high bit form of digital broadcast) in major markets in 1999, with introduction in secondary markets 6 months to a year later. This has occurred. By the end of the decade, analog transmission is to cease. However, moving from one of the spectrum where there is a predominance of analog and a scintilla of HD, to the other, where there is a predominance of HD (or SD) and just traces of analog in the smallest of markets, has proven difficult for broadcasters to accept. But eventually it will happen.
You ask how. Well, the answer is for the broadcasters to expand digital transmissions from their towers, and begin to limit their analog transmissions. One problem is that digital signals don't carry as far as analog signals. So broadcasters are concerned about shrinking their market by simply switching to digital as digital signals will not be able to be delivered to consumers who live far from where the such signals are originated. The answer, I believe, is to construct repeaters atop towers along these paths. No small task, but then again, they got 9 years to do it, but conversely, such 9 years may not be enough. The bottom line is that broadcasters don't want to immediately cut off the size of their market. To do so would be adverse to their business model which is completely advertising based, unlike the MSOs or DBS providers, which rely in part upon monthly subscriptions.
Roll into this mix the consumer and his purchase decision on a TV. Because of this transition phase we're in, every digital TV that is produced must be capable of receiving and reproducing analog signals. No HDTV today is purely digital, which is why you need a separate set-top box to convert the digital signal received from over the air, or via a satellite RF cable, to an analog signal, where the box can then be connected to a HD or analog TV. If its an HDTV monitor, the signal is then re-converted back to digital to be enjoyed in all its splendor, and is capable of doing so across a myriad of competing formats that have yet to be resolved.
So, we all look forward to the day when (1) there is one agreed-upon HD format, and (2) analog has disappeared that a consumer can walk into a consumer appliance store and buy a 100% pure piece of equipment design to operate in a single HD format. This "simplicity" should make the digital TV more affordable to the masses than it is certainly not today.
If your concern of "how" is with respect to the cable platform, I believe we discussed this issue earlier. Technically, can it be done? Yes. Economically, does it makes sense to the MSOs to do so at this point in time? No. They have enough of their hands upgrading their plants to digital to offer the same breadth of channel selection as the DBS providers. They are more loathe to deploy HDTV than over-the-air broadcasters, but will be forced to do so as over-the-air content becomes more & more available in digital content only and less & less in analog. The MSOs know this. They know they have to upgrade to digital sooner or later, and realize that at some point they will have to offer HD signals to the set-top box.
Where do the telcos and VDSL stand on all of this? Well, Frank provided some figures on the transmission of HD signals over VDSL. Is VDSL the answer for delivery of HD? Tough question. VDSL, like DSL, may just be an interim solution, and an "interim" solution can be 10-15 years. The ultimate may be, as we have discussed here & elsewhere, FTTC, FTTH, or IFITL. IMHO, this is why the SBC partnership with DirecTV still makes sense in light of future efforts to deploy VDSL. HD via the dish will always be available to complement the VDSL connected home. |
