>>Ok CC where did you go and whats goin on!!! Your comment on the AGM please. <<
I apologize for not giving this thread much of an explanation for not posting as much as I did in the past. A while back I put up this post on Stockhouse. It explains my absence from the threads the last few months. I put it up to respond to someone on Stockhouse who had also asked where I was. I have attached a copy of my reply to them.
I assure you that I still have the bulk of all of my shares in this company, and due to my travel commitments, I did not attend the AGM in Calgary today. However, I will be there later in the month, and I will be visiting the company's offices to ask a few questions at that time. I bought into this company because I believed in the power of their distributed task force. Due to a number of reasons, some understandable, and some not the technology has taken longer to complete. The bottom line is that the technology that makes these task forces work effectively and which is what will bring in the bulk of new customers is not ready yet. I believe (and I could be wrong), when it is ready, this is when we will see the company start to hit their stride. Right now, I believe they need to get that platform completed before they can really take off. On another note, their app co's seem to be finding their own legs, and are becoming stronger all the time.
Those are my thoughts so far, however and I haven't had the opportunity to read the transcript from the meeting as yet (I hear it is going to be posted on the company's website).
I assure you that my absence from the threads is in no way indicative of a lack of support for this company and what they are doing. It is all a matter of time management for me now. I can also assure you that I have been undergoing a form of withdrawl lately. I do miss talking with a number of you on the thread.
Here is the post from Stockhouse I was referring to . . .
Crazy Canuck
>>Has CC left the planet. Only 3 total posts on the S/H and S/I threads in the month of June. Just wondering?<<
No I haven't left the planet, However, I am preparing for a launch of sorts. The reason I haven't been actively participating on this (and other) threads, is that I am working extremely hard on all of the details related to starting up a new company. This effort has me working extreme hours, and there seems to be a new challenge popping up every few minutes. Long walks at lunch are a distant memory . But despite this, I am having a ball! The past number of months has been both invigorating and fulfilling at the same time.
Unfortunately, I have been unable to actively participate on these sites. So rather than occasionally popping in, I have purposely avoided looking at what is being said on a daily basis. Once the dust settles a bit and my business's infrastructure is in place, I hope to be able to participate more frequently. That said, I would like to take a quick break to offer a few random thoughts . . .
The company is a growth company that has freely admitted that they are still developing their technology. Even though they have been selling their products, the core of the technology is not mature yet. That is why they have the development teams in India focusing on bringing their technology to completion ( 40% of the world's software is developed in India ).
The full readiness of the technology will be essential to the company's ability to maximize their opportunities. The "low cost - work on demand" distributed task force concept (and working model) makes extremely good business sense to me. Whether the company can effectively capitalize on this opportunity is open for debate, and time will tell.
Jan Baan has demonstrated a willingness to buy a larger stake in the company and given his network of companies (Vanenburg Group) and the contacts he has built up over time, I am convinced that when the technology is ready, so too will Vanenburg's willingness to assist them in marketing it to the world.
The recent announcements of contracts has shown that companies (extremely large ones and small to medium sized ones) have determined that it is worth the risk to allow this company to handle the “point of first contact” with their customer base. I assure you that given GE’s focus on service, this decision would not have been made lightly. Therefore, I have to assume that the extensive testing showed that there was a significant level of confidence in the company and what they were offering.
Don Sandford has stated in the last investor's forum that NSI's projections for revenue should be between "10 to 20 million". When he talked about the GE contract in the last investors’ forum, his example was to take a mid range number of $15 million. Any potential investors and or speculators who want to put a multiple to that number can work out some targets upon which they can calculate value.
The intangible for me is the value of the application companies versus their costs of operation. There are definitely higher costs associated with building an infrastructure of a growth company to capitalize on the potential in their market. The company's ability to sustain these costs while it waits for the enhanced opportunities which the more robust software can give them is an important issue that cannot be discounted. So from my perspective, I have to ask where can the company generate money it may need? Can they generate revenues from additional contracts & licensing arrangements - yes, Investment from Institutions - yes, IPO's of the Appco's – yes. What I also have considered is that as NSI has the core technology and distributed task force that allows them to branch off into a variety of new start ups. As a result, the company is not bound by the limitations of their existing Application companies. If NSI wanted to take full advantage of the flexibility their Distributed Task force offers them, then the company could also consider selling off one or more of the existing Application Companies they have now. Given the potential of a couple of these in particular, I believe that they would be able to command a very respectable price for them. This influx of cash could be sufficient to support this company’s development plans for a long time to come. Now, if one or all of these various options did transpire, then any injection of cash (depending on the total amounts involved) could significantly strengthen the company's ability to fund further expansion of their business model into new opportunities, etc.
The basic premise that all of my comments are based on is whether you believe that the product is saleable, for a fair price, and the company can deliver on their commitments. Does the company have the ability to sustain itself to a point where it can bring all of this to maturation?
If I were making these comments in early March, I assure you that I would be much more concerned about my investment in this company. However, after the successful completion of the Enhanced Business Transactions, with Jan Baan assuming control of the company (and Vanenburg's Management and Infrastructure in place to support it), I have a much higher level of comfort. Now, I will be the first to admit that I could be wrong. I don't think I am, but as a realist it would be foolhardy to discount the possibility.
I also believe that it is healthy to be asking tough questions. Profiting when the stock price drops or stays low is just as valid an investment technique as profiting when it goes up. However, I tend to be very wary when the extremes on both ends of this spectrum come into play. For those who are attempting to decide what to do, remember that it is wise to remember that it is easier to instil fear than it is confidence. It is also easy to let your emotions and hopes take you over the edge. If this process was an easy one, then we all would be rich.
I appreciate the contributions that many investors have made on the thread over the past while. I especially appreciate the contributions WUWT made today. His comments were supported by solid reasoning and facts to counteract another statement that in my opinion played on emotions. I am not in any way attempting to elevate myself above emotional contributions, (I can celebrate, have fun, wallow in my own self pity with the best of them). However, I like to think that when the hard decisions have to be made, I can make these as objectively as possible. For that reason, I still have the bulk portion of all of the shares that I have bought in this company over the past year.
Here is an excerpt of a January 16, 1995 article in Forbes. I felt it was so valuable that I have saved it since I first came across it over 5 years ago. It deals with an interview that Forbes conducted with Sir John Templeton - Founder of the Templeton fund. I think it may be especially relevant today.
The principle of maximum pessimism
"People are always asking me where is the outlook good, but that's the wrong question," he responds. "The right question is: Where is the outlook the most miserable?" Templeton call this approach to investing "the principle of maximum pessimism." Others might call it contrarianism. He explains it this way: "In almost every activity of normal life people try to go where the outlook is best. You look for a job in an industry with a good future, or build a factory where the prospects are best. But my contention is if you’re selecting publicly traded investments, you have to do the opposite. You're trying to buy a share at the lowest possible price in relation to what that corporation is worth. And there's only one reason a share goes to a bargain price: Because other people are selling. There is no other reason.
"To get a bargain price, you've got to look for where the public is most frightened and pessimistic."
Not many of us are temperamentally equipped to buy into a country where the mobs are in the streets or the currency is collapsing amid runaway inflation. Templeton grants it: The art of successful investment is counterintuitive. The time to buy is when everyone is scared and you are a bit scared yourself.
There are many questions that I would like answers to, but that is what the Investor Forums, and the upcoming Annual General Meeting is for. I recommend that if anyone is looking for answers, they should forward them directly to the to the company now so that they may be addressed during the meeting.
With the very tight schedule that I now have before me, I am trying very hard to leave open time to attend the meeting in Calgary on the 13th. If for any reason I can't attend I will be asking a few of you to pose a question or two on my behalf.
Now it is time to get back to building my own business. I’ll talk to you all later!
Crazy Canuck |
