I think the conclusion to be made, at least the more objective, is that ORCL is somewhat under-valued. The Street has reasonably shaved 10-15% off the stock price as a result of (1) Ray's sudden departure, and (2) more importantly, the PERCEIVED uncertainty as to how ORCL will perform minus Ray Lane.
I think many of us hear, as well as Ray himself, is that ORCL will do fine in the next couple years. ORCL's numbers will continue to impress the Street over the next few Qs, and eventually the stock will hit the triple digit figures that I was expecting by year end before the damper placed on the stock by Ray's departure. Its still possible since ORCL has Q1 to report in Sept., and Q2 to report in Dec. We shall see.
In addition to bottom line reporting, I believe the Street will be focused upon the new and expanded roles of Gary Bloom, Jeff Henley, and Safra Catz vis-a-vis Larry's continued hands-on involvement in all aspects of the business.
One question we keep on hearing is "who will replace Lane?" I don't think we're about to see a specific individual fill those shoes yet. Perhaps when the metamorphosis that ORCL is undergoing stabilizes and a need emerges for an individual with the skills that Ray possess is particularly needed to effect corporate objectives that the present executives seem ill-equipped to accomplish. It remains to be seen, IMHO, whether Ray's shoes will ever be filled, at least not in the near term. |
