Well, that could turn out to be a pretty large napkin.
Your comment was the same as mine as I wrote that colloquial expression. Nevertheless, the 4 corners of the napkin serves to limit the scope and detail of one's analysis. Let's face it, I'm sure this issues has made the careers of many consultants, and the volumes of economic analysis performed in evaluating this issue to date is likely to fill up my 28.8K bps connection for hours. What I was looking for, at a minimum is to first breakdown & identify, if possible, some distinct components of these architectures and their "guesstimated" costs. We talk about deepening the fibre plant and installing units to the curb; we talk about the backhaul to the CO and/or IAD and converging the various services to the CO before they are integrated into their own respective networks at the core. I'm curious if at some point these distinct areas have been quantified, at least in terms of costs.
Often times when I read arguments against, and surprisingly, even "for" fiber to the home, one of the categories of comparison that is usually missing is the "potential" to support as-yet unknown applications (some of which are known, but not feasible yet without fiber) that the enabling characteristics of fiber engender.
Yes, I agree, and have pretty much been aware of this issue, particularly when it comes to investing & evaluating the competitive advantages of competing companies. Very often I see others evaluating the prospects of a particular company v. another without realizing that while one company is improving upon its products, the other is not standing still. Similarly, you talk about MPEG in terms of digital video delivery. My reaction is that MPEG always seems to be improving, and that the ability to condense more video content along this format will improve over time, and thereby ease the demands placed upon bandwidth in the pipe. Do you agree?
Re: FTTH I suspect, in affluent areas and perhaps some MDU situations.
What role will fixed wireless (MMDS) play in this? I, for some reason see fixed wireless as a very economical way to deliver digital broadcast in lieu of twisted pair. The issue is can the telcos truly deliver converged services via fixed wireless? And if so, how limited are the applications ? (ie. line of sight, moisture, terrain, FAA restrictions, etc.)
Gotta roll for now. Conference call at 10 PDT. |
