Chispas,
Yes, Bill Fleckenstein expressed it "SO WELL", but he did "miss the boat".
First, my Safe By the Bay Harbor statement.
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I was going to topic this "believe it or not",
but upfront i know no one, and with good reason,
would believe lowly i could correct this man.
So eventhought you will see the light i see,
eventhought after reading what i say, you will
understandard'aB not squeek up and announce to
this thread "wow, doug was right", as you know
that many never fully read my posts, for sure
not from top to bottom, so to let it B knowned
that you agreeded with this post, many who have,
as in will not, read this post, will think that
you a did a crazy thingie.
siliconinvestor.com
[Start.]
... (Friday, July 14)
The root of the problem...
For those of you who have been burned out there,
besides being somewhat culpable yourself
for getting sucked into all this nonsense,
the first place to lay the blame is not
your online broker (as some have done),
but the ultimate source of the madness -- the Fed.
I have believed for a long time
that the speculation that was and is
the Internet mania was engendered by the Fed.
I touched on this in the January 3, 2000,
edition of The Rap (an excerpt follows below).
I liked the way I said it then, in fact I practically
broke my arm patting myself on the back at the time.
Dot.com dad. . . In a sense, Alan Greenspan,
not Al Gore, is the father of the Internet
(certainly the father of Internet speculation).
The family tree goes as follows:
About this time last year,
when Internet speculation
was just getting rolling,
Greenspan was busy putting
the liquidity we just described
into the system.
As liquidity was jammed in all year,
it had to go someplace
and went to the place
where there were the fewest fundamentals
and the most imagination -- a.k.a. Internet stocks.
That's the way speculation always works;
it seeks ideas with the highest imagination potential
and fewest hard facts.
He succeeded in powering all sorts of.....
So my somewhat heretical view is that.....
Today's Journal article touches on some things
that aided and abetted the Internet speculation,
but the primary culprit in my opinion is the Fed.
[End.]
Now if Mr. Fleckenstein read all the commentaries
from all the world class folks at Le Metropole Cafe,
then he would have realized that the amount of cold
hard paper cash Allan Greenspan introducted into
what we deem as that we exist in, was not enough
to cover all the buying and speculations done
during that dot com bubble. As to what allowed
the bubble to increase its size quickly and with
great volumn was those talked about GSEs, knowned
thru words as Government Sponsored Enterprises
that allowed creation of credit/debt without
the normal use of those printing presses.
Almost as if out of thin air, just one step below
fiat currency, as atleast the paper can be used
as wallpaper or toilet paper after hype-inflation.
Imagine a roll of one dollars bills required to
purchase a roll of toilet paper of size that you
exchange more paper money to obtain a less amount
of the other paper. Might have to tho, as the color
in paper money is not "wet" proof.
So the Fed is not which caused or allowed the dot com
to be created, but something that only existed as a
prediction of existence, and once it's existence is
called to appear as real, then poof.
I think it was legally done,
but it did require smoke and mirrors,
a lot of mirror,
like those at the funny room at carnival,
where what you see is not what really is being described.
I'm sure Ron will mention that perception Rules
and reality is what ever the crowd, aka herd, wants.
And if conflicts araise, then go to the next level
of perception, i guess ron will say.
doug |
