Red Dragon is about to get burnt by his own hot air
Well, in the big picture, it ultimately doesn't matter when the cycle actually peaks. What really matters is when Wall Street thinks the cycle is nearing an end, and starts to lose interest in the semi industry.
Look at Gottfried's chart, especially in 95-96. Notice that KLIC peaked about 9 months before the actual industry did during that cycle.
geocities.com
So perhaps you will be right, and the actual semi peak may not happen soon.
But it's possible that I might also have been correct in calling when Wall Street's interest in semi stocks peaked. Indeed, all the semis like AMAT, etc. are struggling and trailing the NASDAQ over the past 3 months. Here is a great chart that summarizes everything:
finance.yahoo.com
At any rate, the bottom line is the performance of the portfolio. You know that I dumped all my KLIC at over $70 a few months ago and immediately rolled it over to fiber optic stocks like SDLI. Indeed, just 6 weeks ago, I urged everyone to get into SDLI (see below). Around that time, SDLI was trading at $160-$190. Today it sits at $360. Hope everyone here cashed in with me.
Message 13786075
So even if I'm wrong about the peak of the cycle, I'm very happy with dumping KLIC above $70 and rolling those proceeds into a superhot stock. I'm glad my money has not been languishing in a trading range.
Whether my reasoning for leaving KLIC ultimately turns out to be correct or not, the end result is very sweet. Ultimately, that's what counts. The market always has the final judgement.
p.s. If SK is correct and the peak happens after 2001, then by all means, KLIC and the other semi stocks will soon resume their upward course. KLIC has had a nice run in anticipation of earnings July 20. Future guidance will be critical. I still own AMAT that I bought for a split adjusted $6.50 in 1994, so I certainly wouldn't mind seeing the semis run a bit. |
