Thanks for great site.
Many will know this already, but notion of price dropping significantly at lockup expiration is a murky one. Yes, there will be selling pressure, but other factors must be considered.
First, if it is a quality company, end of lockup releases shares, so that mutual funds can start buying without jacking up price artificially. Big mutual funds make their buys of a stock over a period of WEEKS to allow entry; companies with small floats make it hard to buy in bulk.
Second, lockup expiration is a known event, and will be discounted by market.
Finally, waiting for lockup expiration to buy sometimes works, and sometimes does not. Price may not drop- PHCM is a good example, price actually appreciated at lockup expiration. Many were waiting for drop, and it never happened.
WEBM looks solid- I will be holding through lockup through whatever price fluctuations there may be. Earnings are 7/26, lockup 8/8. I think that earnings (revenues) will be awesome, and will have a much more important effect on stock price than lockup. |
