Part III: The Joy of Questioning
It was a bona fide mood killer. On May 15, the 100 or so chief technology officers at San Francisco's Palace Hotel were flying high. They spent the morning at a high-tech conference getting jazzed about how they could help their companies cash in on the limitless wealth-making potential of the Internet. Then Bill Joy took the stage. The Sun Microsystems Inc. chief scientist used his lunchtime keynote to lay out his view of technology: He fears that rapid high-tech advances could lead to man-made electronic and biological scourges--and the possible extinction of the human race by mid-century. For most of the speech, the audience sat in respectful silence. Then Joy gave a sense of what the future could hold by reading a long description of a horrific plague that wiped out much of medieval Greece. Nervous chuckles began to break the uncomfortable silence.
Joy is a surprising candidate to be making such dire warnings. After all, he has helped shape Sun's vision of superfast computers zipping all manner of digital transactions along the Net. And, he admits, it's computers from Sun and others that will make possible the scientific advances he fears. Still, no one at Sun is trying to talk Joy down from his high-tech bully pulpit. ''The concept took me by surprise,'' admits Sun CEO Scott G. McNealy. ''A lot of people think Bill is shooting the golden goose. But hey, I've got kids, too, and Bill's [discussing his views] in a very prudent, responsible way. He's not some lunatic. He's not a prophet of doom.'' Adds Melvin Schwartz, a Nobel prize winner for physics in 1988: ''He's thinking about the things that should be thought about. What sounds wild today won't be in 20 to 30 years.''
Indeed, Joy says he's out to shake the mindset that technology offers boundless good. Since publishing an article in Wired magazine last April entitled ''Why the Future Doesn't Need Us,'' the 45-year-old Joy has been spending a third of his time on his latest concern. Discoveries in genetic engineering, robotics, and molecular-level engineering (nanotechnology) will soon make it possible for terrorists to unleash mayhem far more dangerous than the nuclear threat, he says. ''These technologies are going to create a quadrillion dollars of wealth in the next century,'' says Joy. ''But we do have to deal with the risks. The future is rushing at us at incredible speed, and people just haven't thought it through.''
There have been plenty of doomsayers in the past, but few have Joy's credentials. In 1976, as a graduate student, Joy created a version of the Unix operating system that is the standard for most Web sites. In 1982, he co-founded Sun, and was a driving force behind its Java software. These days, Joy is working on new technology to make computers resistant to software bugs.
Joy is by no means turning his back on the Information Society that has made him rich. He says he's simply trying to start a debate. He suggests that companies exploring planet-threatening technologies pay high insurance premiums to discourage them from simply dabbling in such technology. Joy fears the only answer could be one that appalls scientists--including himself: put an end to the spirit of unfettered freedom of scientific inquiry. Lewis M. Branscomb, IBM's former chief scientist and a professor emeritus at Harvard University, credits Joy with raising important issues, but cautions that ''once the politicians are allowed to start censoring 'dangerous knowledge,' we will lose both our democracy and our ability to understand how to manage our future.'' For Joy, the debate is just beginning.
By Peter Burrows
businessweek.com |
