re: ANF
Talk about research your typical institutional investor doesn't do. My wife loves Dave Matthews, and I got the other ticket for a concert in Philly last night. First of all, if Dave Matthews IPOs himself, buy. The guy's music is brilliant, and live he's like Springsteen. And he's only about 30 years old I believe.
But when I got to the stadium I realized I had walked into an investment research opportunity. I was probably in the oldest 1% in the stadium (and I'm only 31!). I realized that I was looking at 60,000 members of Abercrombie's target market for the first time. Dave Matthews is about as cool as it gets for that demographic. So I started counting logos. Wasn't even close. I think I saw GAP twice. Old Navy twice. Nike just once on apparel. American Eagle (A&F knockoff) here and there. Abercrombie logos were everywhere. Everywhere. I mean if I saw ten I saw a hundred. Hell, I was wearing an Abercrombie shirt so I could fit in with what I knew would be a younger crowd.
I paid my babysitter with an Abercrombie gift certificate because when I showed her the fall catalog she said she'd love to buy this and love to buy that, but wouldn't pay the high prices.
This is a company with a $4 million advertising/catalog budget. Where does this mindshare come from? It is clear that they have not "bought" it like Nike ($1 billion ad budget). Or at least they haven't paid for it.
If this is a game of mindshare, that game is over - these guys have mindshare. Not among 50 year old portfolio managers, but their target market (17-25 year olds who want to be cool - and what 17-25 year old doesn't?) is still really into this brand.
Maybe I'm looking at a fad. That's clearly the risk here. But if its a fad, it is a fad that is still going very strong.
I bought more shares a little over 15 on Friday, and I will continue to add. I continue to think this one is special. |
