Of course I cannot say for 100% sure :-) We both have our
opinions. Mine happen to be backed up by the company (who states they will be cash flow
positive by end of this year), and also major analysts who have spent more time on this than
myself. For your opinion on the other hand, I don't see much backing it up.
Brian,
I also cannot say anything that is 100% certain. I have spent too much time debating Amazon now more out of interest than I should. I am going to stop debating the issues and just let time play out so we see how the firm does on a cash basis, earnings basis and stock price basis.
I have been perfect in calling the the stock price of Amazon incorrectly. I do not know of anyone that could be as wrong as I have been and I doubt I would be any better at it in the future.
On the other hand so far, if you look back to my past posts for the last two years, I have called Amazon's cash burn and earnings problems about as accuratly as it can be. I debated with William Harmond about Amzon needing to raise cash last spring and I was correct and he was wrong. That may be a first in that on stock price moves, William makes me look like I am just learning to walk;-)
Amazon is the most controversial firm I have ever seen. These are the four possiblities that could play out over the next year or two.
1. The analysts in general do not understand Amazon well at all and basically go with what mangement says.
2. The analysts do understand the cash flow analysis and are calling it like they see it.
3. The analysts do understand the cash flow situation but for other reasons, they are not really telling what they believe.
4. I am incorrect and although it would be the first time rgearding the FA for Amazon, is is far from the first time nor the last time that will happen. I promise I will be incorrect again and will admit to being incorrect on Amazon if my call of needing funds by Q3 of 2001 is incorrect.
I see you over on the New Economy thread which I frequent too. I very much enjoyed your reply and thoughts. I especially enjoyed the gentlemanly way you present yourself.
Let's let it play out and keep in touch as each quarter unfolds. I do wish to reinterate or reply to this sentence:
For your opinion on the other hand, I don't see much backing it up.
Actually, I have posted more than I wish to admit with in depth explanations of my analysis for the Amazon cash flow, profit situation, etc. All of those posts are here but are very difficult to find with about 106,000 posts around and likely not worth trying to dig them up. I just want to say I have spent a great deal of time trying to dtermine the fate of Amazon and I did not make my opinion without a lot of research.
On that note, let's post to each other brief thoughts at the end of each quaterly report and maybe when an analysts makes a change in their opinion in either direction.
How does that sound to you?
Glenn |
