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Arthur Hill, Stockcharts.com:
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S&P--"Cherney on the Markets":
personalwealth.com
>>>Friday July 14, 2000 (4:45 pm ET)
Downside Risk Appears Limited
By Paul Cherney, S&P Market Analyst
NEW YORK, Jul. 14 (Standard & Poor's) - The NASDAQ appears to be adhering to one of the laws of physics: An object in motion tends to stay in motion. A day of lower prices could occur at any time, but the downside risk appears limited.
Immediate NASDAQ resistance is 4256-4287. The index is currently in a band of resistance in the 4206-4324 area.
Immediate support is 4226-4213, then more substantial support 4173-4150 then 4136-4073 (4073 is the bullish breakout point).
The S&P 500 has immediate support at 1479-1470. The index is testing resistance at 1488-1516 and this area offers considerable resistance. The S&P 500's next layer of resistance is 1524-1552.87.<<<
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Dr. Bob:
>>>TA Update by Drbob (July 14, 2000)
From: "Robert Woo" <Drbob512@email.msn.com >
Date: Sat, Jul 15 2000 11:51:18 PM -0700
The Nasdaq powered ahead on Friday, after some profit-taking intra-day which weakened the index temporarily, while the Dow was up a smaller percentage, and the NYSE Composite made a new, all-time high. Once again benign economic numbers were credited with the market’s strength, but from a technical view, there are too many factors to be considered, and the charts and indicators tell the story, according to technicians.
The Nasdaq MACD was more positive Friday, after having just turned up the day before, while the rate of change remains negative, and the OBV can be interpreted as being modestly positive finally, as it is now keeping up with the index. The a/d was 21/17, a slight improvement over Thursday, and the up/down volume was moderately positive at 11/5. Overall volume was 1.67 billion, a decrease from the last 3 days, a slight negative sign.
The ten day EMA is at 4054 and the hourly EMA is 4204, and rising. The weekly stochastic is 57% going up, daily 98% going sideways, hourly 98% going up, so the momentum is pretty strong. The Nasdaq TRIN was a positive .53, and the Williams%R and DMI(ADX) are overbought and may need to reset a little by a dip in the markets soon, but the momentum is strong enough where the markets are likely to maintain it’s uptrend. The Nasdaq is at the upper Bollinger bands and appears parabolic compared to the EMA’s.
The Dow has risen to just above it’s 200 day EMA, and it’s weekly stochastic is 63% going up, daily 95% going up, hourly 79% going up, with a NYSE TRIN of .90, so these indices are in a bullish mode as well, especially the NYSE Composite. The S&P 500 has rallied above it’s resistance at 1500, by ten points.
Due to the overbought indications, the lower volume on Friday, the parabolic rise, and the Bollinger readings, it would appear that the Nasdaq is losing a little steam, and is due for weakness Monday, and possibly Tuesday as well, which would reset the overbought indicators somewhat, and probably is nothing to worry about if one is long, unless the technicals break down badly, which is not expected.
The Nasdaq has rallied right on schedule as per earnings reports. We may reach the 4301 area early Monday or quickly after a temporary dip on Monday/Tuesday, and 4450 to 45 remains the first intermediate term target, at which time the market will be re-evaluated from a technical standpoint. We may be in a new trading range between 4500 and 4000, for the next few months, until the market can really take off when money flows into the system, from October to the first quarter, at which time I would expect the Nasdaq to take out prior highs of 5100 and quite possibly reach 6000.
But for the near term, high relative strength stocks seem to have more juice in them, such as SDLI, GLW,JDSU, RBAK,JNPR, NEWP,RMBS,AETH,NUAN,BRCM,ARBA, and MRVC among others, especially if they have a modest decline early in the week. But watch out for exhaustion gaps or RSI’s above 75 on these leaders on their next rallies. Some others have apparently joined the leaders, such as EXDS,CMRC, ITWO, eBAY, YHOO, PALM, and PHCM, among others, and even more stocks should join the Nasdaq rally as it broadens out over the next couple of weeks. Stocks that seem undervalued still are CMGI, CHINA, SSOL, ISLD, CPTH, ENGA, CSCO, SUNW, ORCL, MSFT, AMAT, INTC, among others. Some speculative stocks that might perform well are MSTR, ADIC, and EDIG, among others.
Dr.Bob does not recommend buying or selling any of the above stocks, and his commentaries should not be construed as recommendations to buy or sell. Information is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Always do your own research before investing.
(Reminder: Stocktimers private chat meeting on AOL is Sunday night 5-6:30 pm PST, while Excite Voice Chat follows immediately for an hour. Also, if you have friends who want to be added to my email list, have them email me at: Drbob512@msn.com)
Best wishes and good trading…<<< |
