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Biotech / Medical : Are Biotechs Now Overvalued?

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To: Jim Haynes who wrote (8)7/16/2000 1:41:15 PM
From: scaram(o)uche   of 14
 
Jim:

In case you haven't seen it, I am copying the language for the first claim of the DGI patent below. This patent has been licensed by Novo. Be sure to look at dgibt.com before further investigation, and make sure you're in "grain of salt" mood (IMO, they simply can't have accomplished everything they claim and yet still be so unknown).

Next breath..... I showed this claim to a friend who is at one of the new boutique biointerface/proteomics companies, and he/she/it was curious and concerned. Another friend, renowned for his/her/its capacities as a molecular modeler, antibody specialty, was impressed with the broad language.

I can't get the CEO, Blume, to comment about anything. My emails disappear into a black hole.

When you find a claim like this, the experienced biotech investor will try to value it. It could be worth $0. OTOH, nobody can say for certain that it won't determine much of the future of pharmaceutical research. At this moment, I'll value it at about the current capitalization of NBSC ($48M) minus a smidge, or at $40 million. That estimate will turn out to look very, very silly, but there's a ton of room between $0 and $gazillions, and someone has to be the first fool.

So.... my valuation model..... $90M ($15/share) without DGI, $130M ($21/share) with DGI. Why the market punishes the company for owning a biotech is something that I do not understand. There's a proteomics-oriented article, authored by Blume and Prendergast, in a recent issue of Genetic Engineering News. Maybe that sort of PR will gain some eyeballs.

Disclaimer: there's virtually nothing that I understand about the market and how it treats this company. In addition, I have a vested interest in the appreciation of my shares. So, why would one listen to my thoughts? Get your own!

1. A method of identifying a potential drug candidate capable of binding to at least one site of a
biologically active target, which site is capable of conferring a biological response, and wherein said
potential drug candidate exhibits either agonist or antagonist activity at the target, the method
comprising:

a) providing at least one detectable reporter of binding of said potential drug candidate to the
biologically active target, wherein said reporter possesses agonist or antagonist activity at said
target and wherein said reporter is selected from a recombinant library of antibodies comprising
at least one variable region;
b) screening potential drug candidates by assaying for the ability of the potential drug candidates
to compete with the reporter for binding to the target; and
c) selecting potential drug candidates possessing agonist or antagonist activity, which compete
with the reporter for binding to the target.
*******************

The 10-K says that additional patent applications are pending.

Cheers! Rick
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