Rydex Total Assets Update for Friday, July 14th:
Dynamic Series (200% Correlation)
SPX Long - TITAN 30.5 Million
SPX Short- TEMPEST 5.6 Million
NDX Long - VELOCITY 61.3 Million
NDX Short- VENTURE 16.2 Million
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Regular Series:
SPX long - NOVA 714 Million
SPX Short- URSA 282 Million
NDX Long - OTC 3,705 BILLION
NDX Short- Arktos 81.4 Million
XAU Precious Metals 41 Million
Money Market 775 Million
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**DOW has been up 6 days in a row and has failed to take out my minimum requirement DOW 10,815 close and equally important DOW 10,863 which is 100% fibonacci retracement from June 5 intraday high. We closed at DOW 10,812.75. 5 day RSI closed at extreme overbought 81.62.
**SPX has been up 4 days in a row and 6 of last 7 days and finally closed above psychological SPX 1,500 level to close at SPX 1,509.98. 5 day RSI is at extreme overbought 81.31. We will see if this is one day false reading above 1,500 with a second close back below this important level. A second close above 1,500 confirms the breakout.
After Monday, we are going into a very historically weak period in July the 18th thru July 24th as compiled by Stock Traders Almanac over the past 50 years. Tuesday, July 18th is the lowest probability day of the year that the SPX will be up. There is a 28.9% chance the SPX will close up on Tuesday. Or a 71.1% chance we will close down however you want to look at it. Ironically, the CPI Report comes out Tuesday morning.
If you take this thought further, you will notice the XAU is at record low asset levels in Rydex. XAU closed at XAU 54.64 only 42 cents above death row support 54.24. A significant intrady break below this level intraday on Monday and I will most likely blow out of XAU before the close although this is not assured. Decision must be made 30-=35 minutes before the close.
XAU 5 day RSI close at just above oversold levels (30) at 34.45.
Notice NDX asset levels continues to creep higher toward magic 3.8 Billion as Fridays levels were 3,705 Billion.
NDX 5 day RSI closed at overbought 75.43
COMP 5 day RSI closed at extreme overbought 79.68
IIX 5 day RSI closed at extreme overbought 79.91
Note IIX closed at IIX 542.95. The last time we were at/above these levels was April 10, 11 before that fateful break on April 12th. So Monday will we see a move back down to this IIX 512-520 area remains to be seen??
NDX closed above magic 4,000 to close at 4,041.15. We have not been above 4,000 since April 7th. So Monday will confirm the rally with a second close above 4,000. A close back below this 4,000 level depicts a false rally 1 day reading. Again the CPI # on Tuesday morning, and with MSFT (and INTC)reporting after the after bell that same day will provide all kinds of whipsaw possibilites. I believe IBM report later in the week. Again, weak seasonality commences on Tuesday July 18th right in the face of all the economic data and earnings reports. Why don't we splash the end of the lunar full moon into the picture.
CAVEAT EMPTOR.
Best Regards, J.T. |
