Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets

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To: Pink Minion who wrote (232)	7/17/2000 12:53:04 AM
From: Pete Young	of 276

When it will all end? Don't bet on soon. A friend of mine who works at a well known semiconductor equip. manufacturer recently took a trip to an Asian semi manufacturer and recounted the conditions he saw there. Firstly, this person said that the manufacturer was ramping production fast, and the management felt that the party was going to last quite some time. The facility was started probably around '96-'97 and is only now starting to really crank. The equip manufacturer installed tools there over a year and a half ago. Once a new fab is built it has to be staffed, equipment installed and qualified, the staff trained, bugs worked out, etc. This is not something that can happen instantly. Any big capacity that is coming on line now will probably be from the relatively few companies that were investing heavily in the downturn, such as Samsung and TSMC. There are some significant capacity gains to made from expansion of existing fabs, yield improvement, etc., but new capacity takes awhile. I think that most fabs have to run 24x7 to be profitable, so there is no way to increase capacity by just adding a shift. . Anyway, I'm guessing that there may be some wiggle in the ramp, but nothing major for awhile yet.

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