re: My prediction: CDMA 2000 will roll fine, it will be adopted in USA, American Continent, Japan, Korea. Other Asian countries will see successful roll out of CDMA 2000 and will opt for it. W CDMA is an un tried, un tested, un proven mirage. And if W CDMA does become reality, who else better suited than Qualcomm to make it? If Vodaphone was to start putting CDMA 2000 in Europe, once it sees successful launch by Verizon in USA, W CDMA might never see commercial deployment.
It might happen that way. Or, it might happen this way: The politically-motivated WCDMA steamroller rolls over all technical problems, and becomes the global standard. A surge in inflation causes a lot more Fed hikes, which causes a recession in 2001, which 1)lowers the S&P 500 trailing PE to 15, with the higher-PE stocks falling the most, and 2)causes the 3G infrastructure buildout to be delayed for 1-2 years, as the telcos have trouble borrowing money. CDMA2000 chips are available 2 years before WCDMA chips, but everyone just waits 2 years and buys WCDMA. By that time, Intel and TI have been working hard on WCDMA chips, and come out with good products. Chipset prices fall 40%/year in this competitive market, and QCOM has only 30% of the market.
I'm not saying it is going to happen this way, I'm just saying this is also a possible future. I'm saying the future is still uncertain. And the stock could still go a lot lower. But, on balance, I'm willing to buy the stock at today's levels, and buy more at lower levels.
JS@thevoiceofdoom.edu |
