shamsaee,
<< IS it CDMA2000 3x with minor changes to fit on top of GSM? >>
cdma2000 3x is VAPORWARE <g> or :-(.
cdma2000 3x does not even exist in specification, and that is about as vapourware as you can get, IMO, and it reflects in the current valuation of QCOM stock, also IMO, because the carriers of the world are figuring this out. While it is possible that 3xMC will be commercially deliverable before UMTS UTRA DS (WCDMA), CDG's latest roadmap (borrowed from Andrew Seybold) shows it delivering at about the same time as DS. Harmonization could hold this up. DS might deliver before 3xMC. See slide 21 below:
cdg.org
I am not sure but I think that this is one of the real problems that Qualcomm is having when it comes time for technology selection by major carriers that license new spectrum. This surfaced in Japan several months back when DDI almost decided on WCDMA because it appeared that WCDMA would be ready before cdma2000 3xMC with the requisite R-UIM for international roaming.
I never expected GSM carriers to select cdma2000, but I am darned surprised when IS-95 carriers select it.
<< Is DOCOMOS wcdma, a cdma2000 1x with some cosmetic changes. >>
No. It is an asynchronous mode of CDMA designed from the ground up to use the entire bandwidth of the IMT-2000 spectrum the WRC set aside in 1992 for 3G wireless mobile telephony and bandwidth is one of the areas where WCDMA differs from cdma2000. W-CDMA specification development so far as I know commenced before cdma2000.
<< I find it hard to believe carriers would take a risk on a technology that is not proven based on NOK and ERIC pledge that we are working on it and will deliver. >>
I will simply say that the Korean government, PrimeCo and WirelessCo (Sprint PCS) took the same risk in 1995 when they took the word of Qualcomm, Lucent, Motorola, and Nortel that IS-95 CDMA would work. IS-95 CDMA was a totally unproven technology that was very late to market and had not even gone into commercial trial in Hong Kong when these decisions were made.
CDMA worked. Qualcomm commercialized it. Qualcomm has essential IPR in cdma2000 & UMTS UTRA DS (WCDMA). That is why I am invested in it. Despite what the good Dr. says, Qualcomm (and us investors) do care whether cdma2000 or UMTS UTRA DS (WCDMA). There is no uncertainty where we stand with cdma2000. There is on UMTS UTRA DS (WCDMA). Eventually that uncertainty will resolve. Now the uncertainty depresses the value of our investment, unfortunately.
- Eric - |
