Petz - Re: "Paul, since you are unwilling to estimate AMD's earnings, how about giving us and estimate of Intel's? Use the "Intel method" which is including all capital gains and not including acquisition expenses.
Do you think the tax rate for Q2 will be less than Q1?
Will the capital gains be even higher than Intel's latest estimate?"
And what is the purpose of this?
I am reminded of your completely wrong estimates of a few years ago !
Are you suddenly a genius ?
{===============================}
To: Paul Engel (32681 )
From: John Petzinger
Sep 26 1997 9:22PM EST
Reply #32981 of 34149
Paul, Re: "they could lose money on every K6 they sell"
8" wafers 31400 sq mm, 162mm die size = 194 die/wafer
80% useable die vs theoretically possible die = 155 die
At 40% yield = 62 die (I have on good authority that current yield
is above this)
AT 84% back end yield = 52 shippable die
Average selling price $160 = $8,320 revenue per wafer
Packaging costs = $20*62=$1,240
Wafer cost = $2300
Gross profit per wafer = $4,780
At 3000 wafers/week = total of 2,028,000 K6's in quarter (the
predicted minimum)
Now, to estimate the fixed costs, AMD's revenue per wafer for the
3rd quarter was 26 shippable die * $200 ASP = $5,200 or gross
profit per wafer of 5200-620-2300= $2,280.
Total gross profit for 3rd quarter=13 weeks *3000 wafers *
$2,280/wafer = $ 88.9M. Since quarter will have had a slight loss,
fixed costs must be about $90M, this includes all the expenses
that ate up AMD's profit, such as ramp up costs.
Now, go back to Q4 with $4,780/wafer * 13 weeks * 3000
wafers/week, this gives gross 4Q profit of $186,420,000. Subtract
the $90M fixed costs and net profit is $96,420,000. Also subtract
an additional $10M for higher Dresden fab costs and $10M for
higher advertising and we're left with a $76M profit or 0.36/share
post tax.
Petz
{=====================================} |
