Tom,
Currently, I view Lbrt with short term resistance at today's
high of 39.75 (reg. hours) and support at the breakout of 30.
The volatility can be a blessing or a curse depending on how
you trade it. I personally like to sell near resistance levels and buy near support. Today I bought back shares as
it was coming down but I am in a position to buy more should
the price come down further (I will jump all over the 30 test). With the way I traded this so far, the price will have to fall well under 20 for me to have any kind of loss, so I
guess this ameliorates fear (one of the two main ingredients
of losing trading - the other being greed) for me.
Although I am disappointed with today's close, it is par for
the course. Lots of positions were initiated (maybe some short covering too) at high (comparatively for the last weeks
at least) prices. Of course the MM will mess with those traders, forcing them to capitulate should their loss tolerance be exceeded. It is admittedly unnerving to buy in
at say 39 only to watch the price soften and fall to negative
close. With the flushing of weak hands, the road will be clear for further advance.
Longer term, I am really stoked with the future prospects
of LBRT. I think the risk of being short this issue is far greater than the risk of being long. As long as the NAZ rally
remains in force, LBRT is destined to start retracing some
ground after its fall from heaven (147). I am looking at the
fib. retracements and salivating at the opportunity to move
to 38%, 50%, 62% levels (69.21, 84.56, 99.90!!!??).
I'm a little reticent to commit any short money until we meet
these objectives, one by one. I have to admit I'm a sucker for the "fill the gap" play, so I may short some at 42 for a
quick, if brief, move down.
As far as trending down, the daily and weekly charts indicate
UP, so I will be patient and lean bullishly until the charts
say it's time to bail. As you noticed from my earlier posts,
my calls are pretty good, but not often TIMELY. I do tend to
over-anticipate, often resulting in buying and selling too soon. I'm definitely improving in this department but the
knowledge that my ideas are ussually right-on gives me the
confidence to endure the MM fun and games.
I predicted a wild and wooly day for LBRT and I was not disappointed. From today's volume (!!!) I predict another wild one tomorrow! I already can't wait! (patience, patience). It would not surprise me in the least to see 30.00
to 40.00 range tomorrow, or the next couple of days. This makes for some pretty good profit opportunities for longs and
shorts, n'est pas?
Regards,
Eichler |
