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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA

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To: J.T. who wrote (3837)7/17/2000 9:28:44 PM
From: J.T.  Read Replies (2) of 19219
 
Rydex Total Asets Update for Monday, July 17th:

Dynamic Series: (200% Correlation to Index)

SPX Long - TITAN 21.2 Million
SPX Short- TEMPEST 5.6 Million

NDX Long - VELOCITY 59.9 Million
NDX Short- VENTURE 19.8 Million

************************************

Regular Series:

SPX Long - NOVA 700 Million
SPX Short- URSA 282 Million

NDX Long - OTC 3,672 BILLION
NDX Short- Arktos 92.5 Million

XAU Precious Metals 44.4 Million
Money Market 860 Million

***************************************

SPX Short in both funds stayed the same. Not as many people follow the Stock Traders Almanac showing tomorrow is the best chance (71.1%)of the year SPX will be down based on last 50 years. SPX closed flat today up less than one point. Now we have this second close above SPX 1,500 but it is nothing for Bulls to cheer about as the market went out like a lamb. SPX 5 day RSI closed at extreme overbought 81.53. SPX up 5 days in a row.

DOW 10,815 close keeps eluding the Bulls. DOW traded between 10,820 and 10,840 for most of the day but died at the bell to close at DOW 10,804 down 8. I have stated upside resistance if DOW 10,863 gets taken out is DOW 11,000. I think Bulls have a small window of next 2 days if this is going to materialize. A break of DOW 10,600 support puts us back in the ballgame for that diamond formation.

DOW 5 day RSI closed extreme overbought 78.28

NDX Short Funds did increase assets in both funds as fund switchers are starting to anticipate the turn.

NDX 5 day closed at overbought 76.84. Nevertheless, NDX still has some upside potential. NDX booked its first back to back close above NDX 4,000 since April 11-12 with a close of NDX 4,062 + 21. Serious overhead supply at NDX 4,150 where a mountain of resistance lies from April. Support at NDX 3,880.

COMP 5 day RSI closed extreme overbought at 81.42
IIX 5 day RSI closed at extreme overbought 81.77.
SOX 5 day RSI closed at overbought 76.36.

All 4 indices NDX, COMP, IIX and SOX have been up 4 days in a row.

XAU acted too weak for my tastes although it did close up 1% to XAU 55.18. Anyone who watches the one minute ticker knows tha it easily could have closed at 54.80. There is massive fund buying and selling at the bell and you never know if it will pop up or down.

Tomorrow is CPI day. Bring on the numbers.

Best Regards, J.T.
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