Re: You can only "surprise" so many times before it
becomes an expectation. I haven't been following
the numbers that closely, is an earnings blow-out
a lock?
FWIW, from what I know, yes. The consensus is for pretty much the same as last quarter. Here's what's different this quarter compared to last, draw your own conclusions:
1) Flash is 1/3 revenues. Guidance from AMD is high single digit growth.
2) Last quarter saw 1.2 million Athlons, guidance from AMD is 1.8 million for this quarter. A recent report from a 3rd party group stated that AMD was out selling Intel 12 to 1 at 1 Ghz; and 3 to 1 at 900 Mhz and above. This is a license to print money. The 1 Ghz chip cost the same to make as a 500 Mhz chip roughly, but sells for $1000 instead of $50 per chip. The money comes from the high end, this is how Intel has managed to stay on top so long and have fat margins.
3) K6-2's will be down as more capacity has been focused at the Athlon. These chips go for an average of $50 or so.
On top of that, there are 172 million shares out standing and the shareholders approved 750 million shares about a month ago. A split hasn't been announced, but the shares are there for a 2 for 1 or for a 3 for 1.
The day after SSB issued their report, AMD announced that they were buying back $400 million in debt so you would have to assume the cash position is looking good. Ironically, SSB downgraded AMD the day of the report. The next day when AMD announced the buyback, SSB was the underwriter. Also, rather ironically, the deadline for the buyback is Wednesday before AMD reports.
Take this for what it's worth, do your own digging if you plan to take a position.... |
