Larry, Steve, and thread,
I am really really sorry we started this, but I will say one last thing on it, and then will let whoever wants to blast me as silly or whatever they wish, and so be it.
First of all, in their filing in the quarter that ended 3/31/00 Seagate said this: "During the quarters ended December 31, 1999 and March 31, 2000, the Company sold 2,000,000 and 12,400,000 shares, respectively, of SanDisk common stock, adjusted for a 2 for 1 stock split on February 23, 2000, for proceeds of $67 million and $468 million, respectively, net of underwriting discounts and commissions. The sale of shares of SanDisk common stock by the Company in the quarters ended December 31, 1999 and March 31, 2000 resulted in pre-tax gains of $62 million and $453 million, respectively." They do not say exactly when they sold the shares, but dividing 453 million by 12.4, you find out that their average price was around $37/share, which means that they sold before the ascent, since they couldn't have gotten a price that low after the stock went up. It is possible that somehow this filing is in error, and there was a correction filed later on somewhere that I didn't notice, or it was in error, but no correction was ever filed.
However, presuming that it is correct, I was in error to say that it was Seagate selling that drove the price down, at least in any direct sense. I still think that the float and psychology hypotheses have merit as partial explanations for the dive, but, you know what? I could care less right now. I am more focussed on the future, and am holding onto my stock (indeed, have added a fair bit recently) in the belief that there was no fundamental operational reason for the fall. We shall find out in two days time.
I hope this issue can be put to bed now. I will not comment on it again. Somehow I suspect that others will want the last word, though.
Let it be.
Sam
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