Hi Larry,
I found this article and thought I would post it for general information. SFA has been simply the greatest investment...
Good luck,
Eric
Scientific Atlanta: Sitting Pretty with the Set-Top Box
Senior Analyst: Evans Kissi
Back in the early 1980s, which might as well be the middle ages as far as cable television is concerned, viewers were told to
ask "Where's My MTV"? Today, they might be asking an updated version of that question, "Where's my ITV?" as in interactive television.
If interactive television ever does fulfill the forecasts that have been set down for it, Scientific Atlanta (NYSE:SFA ) is all but assured of being one of the companies that benefits the most from the technology.
Since the beginning of the year, the company's shares have outperformed every other member of the S&P 500, more than
tripling in value. By contrast, the index itself is still down since January 1.
Then, on Thursday, partly driven by a bullish price target from Wit Soundview, the stock jumped another $9.13, or 12%, to
$85.44. Wit expects the shares to hit $100 and the brokerage firm is enthusiastic about the company's core business of making
and selling set-top cable TV boxes.
The company is benefiting from a situation straight out of economics 101: Demand is blistering hot for cable set top boxes
because they are one of the building blocks of high-speed Internet access and the next generation of cable TV services. Yet
there just aren't enough of them to go around. The firm pretty much sells its goods as fast as it makes them.
The supply-demand imbalance is expected to last, and that should be very good news for the stock price.
Based in Norcross, Georgia, Scientific Atlanta has been building set top boxes for years, but in the last few years, as cable
modem Internet access and interactive TV have moved beyond the high-tech buzzword phase and into the commercial
marketplace, the business has accelerated.
The latest version of the company's products can send and receive signals across fiber optic networks, handle telephone
services that are carried across cable lines, provide high-speed Internet access and also supply interactive TV services.
Domestically, the company is the second largest maker of television set-top boxes behind Motorola Inc. (NYSE:MOT -
Quotes, News, Boards), which acquired General Instrument, the largest maker of the boxes last year.
For both Scientific Atlanta and Motorola, there isn't any better a time than right now. According to Morgan Stanley, Dean
Witter, forecasts that the cable industry will spend approximately $10 billion to upgrade its networks.
The company's customers include cable TV providers like MediaOne Group Inc. (NYSE: UMG - Quotes, News, Boards),
Charter Communications (NASDAQ: CHTR - Quotes, News, Boards) and Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX - Quotes,
News, Boards), which accounts for more than 16% of sales, is the largest.
Time Warner has more than 13 million cable subscribers with analog service, and the company expects that all of them will
eventually switch to digital service to take advantage of Internet access and the other services the cable companies are adding
to their repertoire.
Scientific Atlanta's flagship digital set-top box product, Explorer, is being deployed by cable companies into customers' homes at the rate of 40,000 per week, an annual rate of 2 million. The company expects annual shipments of the product to top 5.2 million by next year.
To meet the soaring demand, the company has twice within the last seven months announced expansion in its manufacturing
plant in Mexico.
In addition, the company recently launched an aggressive campaign to recruit engineers and other high tech professionals.
The hot market for the company's products was borne out in the results for its fiscal third quarter, which ended March 31.
Scientific Atlanta posted solid top and bottom-line results. Net income for the quarter jumped 83% to $38.1 million, or $0.23
per share, from $20.8 million, or $0.13 per share on a split-adjusted basis, for the same period in fiscal 1999.
The Street had anticipated the company to earn $0.20 per share. This was the sixth consecutive quarter in which the company
exceeded Street estimates.
Third quarter sales rose 38% to $440.7 million from $320 million for the same period in 1999. The sales figure also beat the
Street's estimate. Sales of the company's Explorer 2000 experienced a sequential growth of 92% from the fiscal second quarter
of 2000. During the quarter, the company shipped over 500,000 of the Explorer 2000 digital set top boxes.
Both management and Wall Street analysts are very upbeat about the company's prospects. In a recent meeting with analysts,
management confidently said the results for the coming fiscal fourth quarter should exceed the Street's estimates.
The optimistic outlook led WitSoundview's analyst Truc Do to reiterate his "Strong Buy" rating and up his 12-month price
target to $100. The analyst also raised his earnings estimates for fiscal 2000 to $0.87 per share from $0.84 per share. For
fiscal 2001, he raised his estimate to $1.31 per share from $1.16.
Bottom Line:
Scientific Atlanta has the good fortune of making the right product at the right time. This is one place where
momentum investing is still working. |
