Eric -
You ignore interesting recent Asian wCDMA developments.
1) NTT's "agreements" with Korean telecoms came at a price - backward compatibility with Korea's latency systems (soon to be 1x). SK Telecom made this clear.
2) ERICY, working with NTT on the May 2001 rollout, suggests 1x can be the upgrade path to either wCDMA or CDMA 2000.
Asian wCDMA, in light of strategic and Asia-specific political concerns, is clearly becoming different than Euro-virgin-wCDMA. Japan, Korea, China and Taiwan will define, and redefine as required and pleases them, what wCDMA becomes. Europe, being last, looses significance in the equation. Europe can only watch. And, in the end, follow.
It is a particularly European mindset that assumes that after standards are completed, and authorized by the "bureauocracy", that standards will not change. And this may well be true within the confines of socialist Europe.
But Europe cannot "call the game on account of rain" for 2(?) years while they get their technology in order. Europe can only control their part of the gameboard, and continue to bar competing standards in Europe, including non-virgin forms of wCDMA. They can hold out the "carrot" of participation in Europe's handset market to the Samsung's and the prospect of roaming to Asian telecoms.
But how will Asia respond? Samsung has a stellar lead in CDMA handset technology. Will Samsung believe that NOK and ERICY will allow Asian handset makers a generous portion of European sales on an alternate standard, at some point in the future? With prospects for roaming between standards imminent, will the telecoms care?
Asia clearly has the opportunity to take the wCDMA "ball". And little reason to resist. Europe is in the process of losing control of "the standard". Euro bureaucrats have no leverage outside Europe, which must puzzle and infuriate them.
Euro-virgin-wCDMA is dying as I write.
regards,
blg |
