RE: "Last week, ...predicted the end of the semiconductor boom within six months or so."
Jules, my post to John stated I believe the boom could be with us through Q1 of 2002.
RE: "Unlike Amy though, I do fault Jon for not having the facts for not having the facts to support that conclusion."
Your statement misstates my opinion so I'll repeat my point again:
My point is: I do not fault an analyst for reporting MORE information, like the change in TC pricing. ( Please tell me what semi analyst pointed out the ensuing TC shortage back in August of 1999, when the industry really needed analysts to do this type of leg-work? ) So, when I see an analyst write a report which points out a change in TC pricing, they get a compliment from me FOR pointing out this change in TCs (and only for that), which is MORE information than the next analyst who just states opinions and doesn't back them up with any information or facts.
Let's take a look at someone who does it right: Kumar. I like Kumar's style a lot - he lists out a plethora of facts - facts after facts. He's not a guy with just an opinion. This is exactly what I like to see. I want the facts and the facts had better be there.
Back to your comment. So, I will give credit to an analyst who mentions a significant fluctuation in TC pricing (which Jon did), since this is potentially an important indicator.
However, contrary to what you said, I do fault an analyst for not providing enough information. If you go back, you'll see this essentially stated twice in two of my posts. My style isn't to get too strong when someone makes a mistake when I am pointing out another important point which is:
Analysts should have been a lot more vocal on the TC shortage earlier last year, so, when I see an analyst highlight a change in TC prices, I'll give him/her a compliment (even in the face of another error).
So, as an investor, I encourage analysts to please keep an eye on them (and overall caps) --- that's my point. And, yes, include all caps (TC replacements) and factor in #cap design reductions.
Regards,
Amy J |
