Hi Paul. Here's my tentative view. First, let's assume that we are in a bull market and not a bear market. The wave counts would be different if we are in a bear market.
Let's start with the SPX/OEX. Yesterday we reached the top of wave 5. The SPX/OEX are now in corrective mode. At this point I am just guessing as to how the correction with resolve itself. In Elliott Wave theory, corrections are more complicated than upward impluse waves. I think this correction in the SPX/OEX may be in the form of a zigzag. A zigzag is basically an 5-3-5 ABC correction composed of 5 waves down in the A, 3 waves up in the B, and 5 waves down in the C. Right now, it looks like the SPX/OEX is completing 5 waves down to A. If the zigzag scenario works out then there should be three waves up into B, and then another 5 waves down into C. My tentative projection for C would be 1475 to 1480 on the SPX and about 795 to 800 on the OEX. These projections are based on a retracement down to the area of the prior wave 4 up. This ABC correction could last around 3 days. By the way, this ABC zigzag correction theory would coincide with the three day pattern that Don Sew often talks about -- down hard, flat and down hard.
I'm not sure of my wave count on the COMPQ and the NDX. However, if they completed wave 5 up yesterday, then assuming that they correct in an ABC zigzag, I could see the COMPQ going to 4000 and the NDX going to 3750. Again, this corrective wave could be completed in 3 days or so.
That's about as far out in time as I'm willing to guess. Also, remember that this forecast is just a guess and it is subject to change if the wave counts change. Also, this is for "amusement purposes only." <gg> |
