"Are you suggesting that NTT would consider implementing 1xMC in Japan?"
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Eric,
Yes, I believe this will be the case.
NTT must unveil a proven system May, 2001. I-Mode is why there can be no hitches, no mistakes. NTT will ensure that I-Mode can compete with DDI, with comparable bandwidth, if they wish to save I-Mode's dominant market share. I-Mode defines value added services for NTT. NTT's ambitions for I-Mode - globally - are great, and perhaps primary.
Second, I fundamentally reject the prospect that NTT's flavor can be ready in May 2001. I understand this keeps IJ up at night.
NTT will implement 1x as their "first stage" to wCMA.
Korea will work the bugs out of their 1x well before, leading to a smooth NTT transition. LU and ERICY will do the work, eliminating concerns with IPR. The only "tell" for the market will be the lack of IPR conflict between QCOM and NTT.
And it will be the first stage to whatever Asia decides, by their right as first mover, wCDMA will become. Asia is kingmaker (no reference to G&K). This opportunity will not elude them.
The deal to come is not between NOK and QCOM. The deal is between QCOM and Asia.
And Europe's vendors may find their grip on wCDMA royalties, at least as concerns regions other than Europe, weakened. Asia' will strengthen. QCOM will share the pie with NTT(Japan) and China. Korea gets a superior technologic lead in the defacto world standard. Plus club prices on chipsets and ASICS.
What I believe, Eric, is that as first mover, Asia has the power to rewrite the standards. Or, rather, the standards are meaningless if Asia ignores them. Simply paper. No standards police.
Asia can cut Europe out. They must deal with QCOM - courts made that clear. But Europe? 3G Europe is years away. Europe's on the bench. Europe gets sent back to the minors. Would be bad business to do otherwise.
IMO, of course.
regards,
blg |
