The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread

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Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (353)	7/18/2000 6:00:17 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (2) of 10065

Justa The other half of the analysis is to ask oneself if it is discounted by the market. I say such an outcome is the consensus now and that it is discounted in the market. A great deal of money comprises the consensus. One distinct possibility is that the consensus view may be the correct view. Unlike 1994, Greenspan is now expected to produce a soft landing. He certainly has an excellent track record. AJ Cohen said the other week that the market has fully discounted the good news. Her target is 1575 for year end if everything goes right. You can take that 5% if you want it because it is not risk free. Money placed in the market is never risk free. Once your money is in the market it is subject to market forces beyond your control in good and bad markets. You have to see the economy jump through Justa's three hoops: (1) reduction of growth to a sustainable level, (2) tame inflation and (3)little or no damage to the growth of corporate profits. Those are three tough hoops and the reward is 5% in a diversified portfolio. We may very well be seeing growth at sustainable levels we'll have to examine the GDP number next week. Tame inflation-I suggest we are there or off the mark a bit-close. Corporate profits I suspect will moderate not tank. The reward may be justa 5% or maybe the reward will be substantially higher. At worst, I expect to get the Brinker rollover The market has turned down significantly in the past three years in the August-October period. Just want you to clarify if you mean this rollover Brinker is predicting is not a seasonal one but more of a sustained unexpected one. I suspect you mean the latter.

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