This is my thinking.....
1. Stock has been ranging from 11 1/2 to 13 1/4 since last Friday open. It's really been up most of the time. Broke short $12 level today for most of day.
2. As already noted, many analysts are still pushing CEPH. This is not a surprise because many have got in at higher levels and don't want to take a major loss.
3. Investor sentiment is with CEPH right now.
4. European application.
5. It is not official yet that Myo. has been buried permanently.
With all of that said, I still think we could CEPH go down in the short term. There will be a lull in the CEPH camp while waiting for FDA final decision as well as European approval. I also think market is unstable right now because of uncertainty over interest rates. My opinion is interest rates will go up 1/4 point, todays "sucker" rally will end shortly and biotechs will get hit as a sector with a small decrease.
If above does happen, and CEPH starts moving in a downward direction, toward the low 12's, high 11's, people will panic. Upward movement will have stopped. People will start believing, hey maybe CEPH could go down a lot more than it already has. And the lull will not help the price. All these factors will make the price go down in my opinion to low elevens, high tens.
This is all in my opinion, and I do think it will happen. I just want to get past these above factors and start getting to above described scenario. And if it does not, my past short position won't hurt me. The only pitfall to my financial success will be timing this thing right at the start of the drop. Anyway, I laid it out for you. That's why I did what I did ... Steve |
