Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 209.04

+0.7%

3:59 PM EST

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To: niceguy767 who wrote (1165)	7/19/2000 1:00:52 AM
From: Petz	Read Replies (4) of 275872

niceguy, realistically, I think AMD stock will peak six to nine months before the Book to Bill ratio drops below 1 for the semis. This is probably a year away from right now. At that time, I think AMD stock would be fairly valued at no more than 20 times taxed earnings. That might be $200 or it might by $150, but I don't think it will be $500. I owned AMD in 1983/84 when peak earnings came out of 0.75/share a couple days before options expiration. I couldn't understand why my 150 January 35 call options expired worthless. (The stock was 35 1/4 at expiration and I elected not to exercise them. A friend of mine did and was wiped out the following Monday.) Long term interest rates were higher back then, but if the market were convinced that this quarter's earnings were a peak, it wouldn't pay more then $90 for $2.00 of untaxed earnings. I think the semi market is healthy now. The JJ scare is just what we needed to keep climbing a wall of worry. I mean, if tantalum capacitors rise in price by 2 cents, investors will rush back into everything semi-related like my dog chases a frisbee, which is to say, fast! Petz

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