Gridlock called into question:
Gore's Gains Among Women Move Him Into Tie in Bloomberg Poll
Washington, July 19 (Bloomberg) -- Increased support among women and older voters has moved Democrat Al Gore into a virtual tie with Republican George W. Bush in the U.S. presidential race and is boosting the prospects of congressional Democrats, according to a Bloomberg News poll.
Texas Governor Bush is favored by 41 percent of registered voters and Gore by 39 percent, the survey showed. The 2-point difference is less than the margin of error of 4 percentage points in the poll of 916 registered voters conducted by telephone from July 11 to July 17. Bush had a 44 percent to 40 percent lead in a Bloomberg News poll in early June.
``The more Gore talks about issues, the better he does among women, in part because it helps overcome their concerns about his connection to President Clinton,'' said G. Evans Witt, president of Princeton Survey Research Associates, the firm that conducted the poll.
Among women, 45 percent said they would vote for Gore, and 35 percent said they would vote for Bush. Last month, women supported Gore 44 percent to 40 percent. Men supported Bush in the new poll, 48 percent to 32 percent, similar to last month's margin.
A majority of women also back Gore's position on taxes and his economic policy agenda, and men favor Bush's tax-cut plan, the poll shows. On issues where men like Gore's position better than Bush's, such as Social Security and education, women give Gore an even bigger margin.
Few Paying Attention
Both candidates still have plenty of time to sway voter opinion, the poll results suggest. Only 36 percent of poll participants say they have given quite a lot of thought to the election. That's up from 32 percent in the June Bloomberg News poll, but indicates the contest is still in an early stage.
``One of the candidates could make a terrible mistake, including in the selection of a running mate, and that could decide the race,'' said Larry Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia.
In addition to women, Gore gets most of his backing from older voters, those with lower incomes, and blacks and Hispanics. Bush gets much of his support from married voters, white males and those who earn more than $40,000 a year.
The move toward Gore by women and senior citizens is also benefiting Democrats in congressional races. If congressional elections were held today, 44 percent of registered voters said they would vote for the Democratic candidate and 33 percent said they'd vote Republican. In June, the advantage for Democrats was 41 percent to 36 percent.
Voters also said they thought the Democratic Party would do a better job keeping the country on a prosperous course, 41 percent to 36 percent, and protecting Social Security and Medicare benefits, 52 percent to 26 percent.
Nader as Potential Spoiler
Gore has spent much of the last two weeks campaigning for a prescription drug benefit for Medicare recipients, a Social Security plan that excludes private stock market investment of a portion of the FICA tax and targeted tax cuts. He and President Clinton have also touted the administration's role in the U.S.'s record nine-year economic expansion. Women, especially, have responded to his stands on those issues, the poll shows.
Gore jumped to a 48-31 lead over Bush among those at least 65 years old; last month, 44 percent of senior citizens backed Gore and 42 percent supported Bush. ``It appears the more that Social Security and Medicare and prescription drugs are an issue, the better it is for Al Gore,'' Witt said.
In a four-way presidential race, consumer advocate Ralph Nader of the Green Party has the support of 5 percent of registered voters and commentator Pat Buchanan has 2 percent. Still, in a close race, Nader can be a spoiler for Gore because much of his support comes at the Democratic candidate's expense. Only 1 in 10 Nader supporters said they would vote for Bush in a head-to-head race against Gore, while 6 in 10 said they'd support Gore.
Gender Gap
Forty percent of registered voters say Bush would do a better job managing the economy, and a like number say Gore would do a better job. Women choose Gore on the economy, 43 percent to 36 percent, while men back Bush, 45 percent to 37 percent.
By 42 percent to 36 percent, voters think Bush would do a better job with the tax issue. Men choose Bush, 52 percent to 29 percent, while women say Gore would do a better job, 41 percent to 33 percent.
The gender gap and age-group differences also show up in questions about Congress. Democratic candidates enjoy an 11-point edge overall, but among men, 39 percent said they would vote for the Republican candidate and 37 percent said they would vote for a Democrat. Women backed the Democratic candidate, 50-28.
Congressional Democrats outpolled Republicans in every age group, but the gap was largest among seniors, 51 percent to 28 percent. The smallest difference, in the 30-49 age group, was 42 percent to 37 percent.
Abortion Issues
The poll also showed:
-- One of every five voters thinks abortion should be legal in all cases, and about one in five thinks it should be illegal in all cases. Overall, 53 percent say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, and 40 percent say it should be illegal all or most of the time.
-- One-fourth of voters say abortion is such an important issue that they would base their vote solely on a candidate's position on that issue. Slightly more of these single-issue voters back Bush than Gore, but the difference is statistically insignificant.
-- Only 16 percent of voters say they will follow this summer's political conventions very closely.
-- Six of 10 voters said they approve the job Clinton is doing as president. In June, his approval rating was 58 percent.
-- The choice of vice presidential candidates is very important to 26 percent and somewhat important to 41 percent. Another 31 percent said the choices for the second spot were not too important or not important at all.
Jul/19/2000 0:01 ET |
