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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis

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To: Chris who started this subject	7/19/2000 8:54:53 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) of 42787

JULY 19 INDEX UPDATE ---------------------- SHORT TERM TECHNICAL READINGS: DOW - midrange NAZ - upper midrange NDX - upper midrange SPX - midrange OEX - midrange VIX - 22.55, midrange CBOE PUT:CALL RATIO - .51 The minimum requirement for my CLASS 1 SELL SIGNAL have been fulfilled, and the timing of the response to the sell signal was timely which implies that this pull back should be normal in size - not large/not small. The SPX/OEX/NAZ/NDX all close down significantly and near their intraday lows, so the 3-DAY pattern is possible. The 3-DAY PATTERN is where DAY-2 could either be DOWN or FLAT, and if it is FLAT then DAY03 should be down significantly, similar to DAY-1. The 3-DAY PATTERN does not apply to the DOW since it did not have a CLASS 1 SELL signal, not did it close down significantly/near the intraday lows. So it may be a bit premature to be bullish if those indices are flat/slightly up today. I am not expecting a strong sell-off, however I am not sure that the next short-term upswing will produce significant HIGHER-HIGHS, maybe slight HIGHER-HIGHs. Keep in mind the seasonality issues where JULY/SEPT is commonly a weak/down time frame. On a more subjective basis, the earnings announcements will be basicly over in another week or so, and I believe that more than half of the companies will have reported by the end of this week. Its quite obvious that the overall market has run up into the earnings period - so could this be a set up for "BUY on RUMOR/SELL on NEWs"? Dont get me wrong the recent run up has been bullish, but sell-offs always start at some sort of a TOP - they dont start at bottoms ggggggggg. I really dont know if there will be a strong sell off, but I dont think it would be wise to assume that the market will just continue up strongly as so many were expecting previously. It was mentioned on the Stock Attack thread that the BEARISH WEDGE on the SPX broke to the DOWN SIDE. That wedge can be seen on both the daily and 60-min chart. Its not a huge wedge. I suspect that the trading range simply continues.

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