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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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To: 10K a day who wrote (56816)	7/19/2000 12:59:29 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) of 99985

WEEKLY LIQUIDITY NEWS UP DATE Monday, July 18, 2000 Stock market liquidity boomed last week to $15.8 billion. Flows into all equity funds spiked over the five days ended last Thursday to an estimated $17.1 billion, one of the biggest five day flows since earlier this year. The new offering calendar popped to $3.5 billion last week. So far this year, foreigners have spent a whopping $75 billion in buying US public companies.On the other hand foreign outfits have raised $22 billion here in the US via selling American Depository Receipts. From an overall liquidity point of view, during the 2Q of 2000 (including the first two weeks of July) if it weren't for foreigners, the US trading float of shares would have soared by $50 billion, instead of just $12.2 billion. Margin debt in June at all NYSE member firms -- which includes margin debt on NASDAQ stocks -- rose $6.5 billion, or 2.7% to $247.2 billion from $240.7 at the end of May. Withheld income tax collections rose to $48.2 billion over the first eight business days of July ending July 13, a 12.2% gain over the first eight days of July 1999. Bottom Line: We stay neutral. We are still concerned about the historic trend of slowing equity fund flows starting during the second half of July and continuing until September. We will be more bullish if tax collection growth resumes at a double digit pace. If it grows by only 7% or so, then watch out.

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