Benjamin,
Re: QCOM - NTT DoCoMo - 3G launch in Japan
<< NTT will implement 1x as their "first stage" to wCDMA >>
As a Qualcomm investor nothing would make me happier. If it happens I will sing your praises as a Grand Seer on every wireless related thread on SI.
I happen to think that not only is this scenario highly unlikely, but almost beyond the realm of possibility. I am consequently not even considering it on my wish list of "good things that could happen to Qualcomm" (which are several).
NTT DoCoMo is not only the pioneer of WCDMA (which most certainly is based on Qualcomm IPR), its most aggressive champion, but it is its own first early adopter.
If they are going to launch 1xMC phase 0 they best hurry up and submit an application amendment to their recently granted license which is specifically for Direct Spread CDMA (DS-CDMA) which is also referred to as Wideband-CDMA (W-CDMA) operating in the 2 GHz band.
NTT DoCoMo is a company that in October 1996 (the same month that CDMA launched commercial in the United States), first successfully field-tested W-CDMA transmissions at 2Mbps. They have been conducting indoor tests of the W-CDMA system since April 1998 at its R&D facility and in October 1998 they launched outdoor tests of W-CDMA. In January of this year they launched W-CDMA field trials in South Korea with SK Telecom and successfully demonstrated video conferencing in a moving vehicle at 128kbps.
As you know standards work on UMTS began in January 1997 within 3GIG (predecessor of 3GPP) acting on behalf of ETSI and other interested groups and standards bodies. On January 30, 1998 the European Telecommunications Standard Institute (ETSI) Special Mobile Group (SMG) announced that it had unanimously decided to adopt a radio interface technology that is based on W-CDMA, but has some elements from the TD/CDMA concept. Essentially this was the proposal submitted to ETSI by NTT DoCoMo and Ericsson.
On June 30, 2000, NTT DoCoMo, Inc. and its eight affiliated companies received approval from the Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications to launch IMT-2000, a next-generation mobile communication service, based on its application filed On April 3. The ministry also granted DoCoMo preliminary approval to license radio stations that will be used to provide the service in Japan. The tentative schedule for introducing the new IMT-2000 service is Around the end of May, 2001, with NTT DoCoMo launching in a 23-ward area of Tokyo as well as Yokohama City & Kawasaki City.
<< Asia has the power to rewrite the standards. Or, rather, the standards are meaningless if Asia ignores them. Simply paper. No standards police. Asia can cut Europe out. They must deal with QCOM - courts made that clear. But Europe? 3G Europe is years away. Europe's on the bench. Europe gets sent back to the minors. Would be bad business to do otherwise. >>
Asia in general, and Japan specifically, are not much different than other regions or countries in that regulatory agencies and standards bodies are in play at all times relative to the implementation of wireless mobile technology. In the case of Japan you have the Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications, the Association of Radio Industries and Businesses (ARIB), and Telecommunication Technology Committee (TTC) playing a central role in coordinating efforts with the UMTS Forum, 3GPP, ETSI, and GSMA.
The ITU IMT-2000 effort is a little different than anything we have yet witnessed in wireless mobile telecom. We now have a global standard (in its initial phases) featuring 5 different modes of operation for 3 different core network types with Network to Network interfaces developed to facilitate Inter-Network Roaming.
NTT DoCoMo has global ambitions that are even more aggressive than even Hutchinson Whampoa's and SK Telecom's. They are becoming an active player in Europe and the Americas. Europe is a great potential market for Asia just as Asia is a great potential market for Europe. I don't foresee NTT DoCoMo or Asia "cutting" Europe out. I don't see NTT DoCoMo or Asia ignoring standards that they took a leadership position in establishing and I don't see them substituting a network or air interface technology based on an American companies proprietary open standard drafted by a partnership project they did not participate in (3GPP2).
NTT DoCoMo frequently lists these strategic partners in its IMT-2000 related press releases: Microsoft, Sun Microsystems, Matsushita Communications, Symbian, NEC, Hutchison Whampoa, KPN Royal Dutch Telecom, SK Telecom, British Telecommunications, Deutsche Telekom MobilNet, France Telecom, Japan Telecom, Nissan Motors,Singapore Telecom Mobile, SmarTone Mobile, Sonera, Telecom Italia Mobile, Telia Mobile AB, et al.
I have never seen Qualcomm's name mentioned in a NTT DoCoMo IMT-2000 press release. If they are going to launch 1xMC in May I guess we will see some mention soon. I look forward to it.
In the meantime, going back to your original post # 28242, you stated that I had ignored "recent Asian wCDMA developments", and in particularly, "ERICY, working with NTT on the May 2001 rollout, suggests 1x can be the upgrade path to either wCDMA or CDMA 2000". I am wondering if you could perhaps link me to a reference to ERICY's suggestion that " 1x can be the upgrade path to either wCDMA"
Once again, I consider it HIGHLY unlikely that NTT DoCoMo will launch IMT-2000 service with 1xMC which they would probably consider to be a 2.5G standard.
Best,
- Eric - |
