"Asia in general, and Japan specifically, are not much different than other regions or countries in that regulatory agencies and standards bodies are in play at all times relative to the implementation of wireless mobile technology."
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Eric,
Fortunately for NTT, it is the government. That makes it rather easy to resolve domestic regulatory, standards and applications issues. Just paper. They are the standards police.
The question is not why Asia should dump Europe, but why not.
Regarding 3G, Europe has no market to offer for years. After spending billions on spectrum, Euro telecoms will be lethargic at best in transitioning to EDGE or GPRS in order to tear it out again to install 3G. I suspect a majority of telecoms wait for 3G, as they have little downside, as Europe's subscribers are captive, save GSTRF. Telecommunications activity in Europe will slow rather than speed. (For NOK, this will make the high margin, fancy phone Korean, Japan and US CDMA 1x market critical.)
NTT's wCDMA, whatever it becomes, and QCOM's CDMA will evolve, for perhaps years, without Europe's influence. (The only meaningful influence is 3G buildout and market share with your system.) NTT has no reason to evolve wCDMA toward Europe's preferences and patents. It has every reason to shed specifications that involve European IP, and enhance its own.
Fortunately, they have to deal with QCOM - the courts make that clear. Asia could carry Europe - but why?
Roaming is imminent, and a universal standard not necessary. Asia can establish the wCDMA standard for handsets and base station equipment, making its technology most attractive from a volume production perspective.
European telecoms will, sooner rather than later, demand wCDMA - any flavor, now, with angry subscribers wanting newest generation technology.
With wireless, Europe's lagtime to 3G technology implementation is deadly. Europe will not recover.
Regarding ERICY upgrade comment - it was posted on the moderated thread a few weeks ago.
regards, and fortune to us all!
blg |
