Benjamin,
<< Fortunately for NTT, it is the government. That makes it rather easy to resolve domestic regulatory, standards and applications issues. Just paper. They are the standards police >>
Unfortunately for NTT, it is not the government, although like At&T or Microsoft, on occasion they perhaps used to think they were. NTT DoCoMo, however influential they are, are NOT the standards police. NTT has learned however to pay the standards game really well, just as Vodafone and TIM have. This is something that Qualcomm has either not learned to do very well, or has been disinclined to do so, and please don't tell Tero I said that <g>.
<< domestic regulatory, standards and applications issues >>
NTT DoCoMo is not just a domestic player. It is already a multinational global wireless player. Resolving domestic regulatory standards and applications issues doesn't do them a heck of a lot of good in the global game they are embarked on that is governed by.
<< Regarding 3G, Europe has no market to offer for years >>
I agree that the market for 3G is several years away, although contract awards have started and most will be concluded by 2003 which is why it would be nice to see a 3xMC standard.
Now, regardless NTT DoCoMo is going after the European UMTS market Big Time. They see a market that you evidently don't.
<< Euro telecoms will be lethargic at best in transitioning to EDGE or GPRS in order to tear it out again to install 3G. >>
EDGE aside (no GSM EDGE standard) you are I assume aware that virtually every major European carrier (Eastern & Western) has already contracted and is rolling out GPRS right now and that is where the majority of mobile wireless infrastructure revenue in the world is coming from this year and where the majority of infrastructure and handset revenue will come from next year.
Let me give you an example of that. Last fall I attended a workshop in Paris at which a France Telecom executive presented their GPRS plans. At the time their subscriber base was 13 million. Their forecast for end of 2004 is 28 million with 20 million of those subscribers will be GPRS. In 2004, they will just be completing the implementation of their UTMS network. FT of course is the largest, but only one of 5 GSM operators in France. There is a market in Europe for data services that will be fulfilled by GPRS and FT is hoping their is a market for multimedia services. So is DoCoMo. They are prepared to spend billions there.
As for "tear it out again to install 3G", GPRS is existing network reuse for existing spectrum and 3G is by design new spectrum, new network. It is not a "tear it out" matter. 3G spectrum is unfortunately (for us Qualcomm shareholders) a need for which Qualcomm has no solution ... 3xMC or maybe 3xEV being total vapourware until a standard is in place that a manufacturer can design to. We can of course take consolation from the fact that Qualcomm derives royalties from UMTS UTRA DS even though in the cross licensing game for chipsets they can possibly hope to come out net equal if not net positive.
<< Roaming is imminent, and a universal standard not necessary >>
Roaming is indeed imminent and that has been Qualcomm's Achilles heel. It still is. A universal standard is necessary. In fact it exists. It is maintained by ETSI SMG9 and in the case of CDMA in cooperation with TIA and CDG. Finally (rushed through in April). CDMA now becomes the last major technology in the world to accept this universal standard. China demanded it. Its an IMT-2000 requirement. Qualcomm has a 2G chipset to support it. They won't have a 3G chipset that supports it for another year (MSM5100). So much for that NTT DoCoMo 1xMc rollout in May, I guess. No R-UIM, No 3G, No play. One of these days we'll see a CDMA handset that can authenticate to a GSM MAP network like the one that NTT DoCoMo will install to support its 3G launch.
<< Regarding ERICY upgrade comment - it was posted on the moderated thread a few weeks ago >>
Thanks. Must have missed it. Quick search didn't turn it up. I assume your not talking about the Ericsson standardization piece I posted here a few weeks ago, originally supplied by microe on the moderated thread. That piece says thateir platform can support MC or DS. If you see it again, perhaps you could provide the link.
Best,
- Eric - |
