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Strategies & Market Trends : Trading the SPOOs with Patrick Slevin!
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To: set who wrote (6071)7/19/2000 7:10:55 PM
From: John T.  Read Replies (2) of 7434
 
Set, I saw where you discussed the wave count on the COMPQ, so I would like your opinion, please.

I've got three theories for the current wave count on the COMPQ:

Theory 1: Wave 1 began at the low on 7/6 and the COMPQ topped out in Wave 3 on 7/17. Since then the COMPQ has traced out corrective wave 4 down and is now ready to resume its upward rally to Wave 5, which should top out at or above Wave 4. The problem with Theory 1, is that under Elliott Wave principles corrective wave 4 may not overlap or enter the territory of wave 1. Wave 4 overlaps wave 1 by 6 points.

Theory 2: Wave 1 began at the low on 6/29 and the COMPQ topped out in Wave 5 on 7/17. Since then the COMPQ has traced out all or part of a corrective ABC wave. The problem with Theory 2 is that under this wave count, wave 2 retraced more than 100% of wave 1 [by 18 points], which is also forbidden under Elliott Wave principles. The wave count under Theory 2, is similar to the wave count on the SPX and OEX.

Theory 3: Wave 1 began at the low on 7/6 and wave 4 on the COMPQ was a small zigzag near the close/open of 6/13 and 6/14. This is observable on the 15-minute chart. This would put the top of wave 5 on 7/17 and it would not violate any Elliott Wave principles. Under this theory, the latest correction would be all or part of an ABC correction.

I know this question is esoteric, but I'd like your opinion if you have the time. Thanks.
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