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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread
VTI 329.91-1.8%Nov 13 4:00 PM EST
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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (376)7/19/2000 9:04:02 PM
From: Dave-in-MarinCa  Read Replies (1) of 10065
 
Justa:
Here's some more reading related to this topic; Kasrial/NTRS's July 13 monthly commentary on the interest rate outlook.
<http://www.ntrs.com/economic_research/us_reports/useo2000/useo_14jul.html>
Moto holds Kasrial in high esteem as do I, for his expertise and candor, both refreshing in this world of spin and spam. In this article, Kasrial says," Although many market analysts have erased an August 22 FOMC rate hike from their calendars, we still have it penciled in" agreeing with Bob Brinker's observation, ".... the FOMC is likely to discount the second quarter economic moderation as a weather-induced head fake and the July pickup as the true colors of the economy." Also, Dismal continues to highlight the risks of inflationary forces moving forward <http://www.dismal.com/todays_econ/te_071800.asp>.
I think Bob's continuing analysis of real M2 growth is correct not because of the absolute numbers, but because real inflation is substantially higher than the BLS numbers (look at real estate, energy and food not to mention health care) effectively reducing real M2 growth to the negative and the corresponding negative effect on the equity markets. The market is at risk to this reality. And I believe Bob's current risk distribution on equities takes this all into account. I hope you will share your take on all of this.
Dave
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