Rydex Total Assets Update for Wednesday, July 19th:
Dynamic Series (200% correlation to index)
SPX Long - TITAN 14.4 Million
SPX Short- TEMPEST 16.7 Million
NDX Long - VELOCITY 52.4 Million
NDX Short- VENTURE 19.1 Million
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Regular Series:
SPX Long - NOVA 548 Million
SPX Short- URSA 322 Million
NDX Long - OTC 3,287 BILLION
NDX Short- Arktos 119 Million
XAU Precious Metals 37.2 Million
Money Market 1,256 BILLION
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Dynamic Series pretty much stayed the same as yesterday, but the Regular series - as depicted in the decreasing assets in long (spx) funds- is suggesting we are getting close to a near term bottom within the next few days. Nevertheless, we can still move and close lower tomorrow. SPX short URSA stayed the same as people are still afraid to put the money on the short side.
SPX Long NOVA assets collapsed to their lowest levels since June 22nd close. Recall this was when we were flirting with breaking SPX 1,440 support levels. SPX had one day false break the next day to break this support and the spx closed down on the 23rd of June. Tomorrow we need to test the mettle of SPX 1,480 support again as it held today to close at SPX 1,481.96 down 11.78. If 1,480 support gets taken out, we could conceivably go test SPX 1,445 intraday before bouncing in worse case scenario if greenspan saber-rattles. However, 25 day MA SPX 1,470 should provide decent buffer of support. On the upside, resistance is at SPX 1,495 right on the 5 day MA. Notice
**SPX closed at lower midrange 5 day RSI 42.52. So we are quickly closing in on oversold RSI 30 level.
DOW broke 10,700 support to close at 10,696.08. DOW support is this 10,600 - 10588 25 day MA area. If 10,588 breaks, 10,525 is next stand before things get potentially nervous. DOW 10,336 is death row support of diamond top formation collapse - still not in the picture as of yet. On the upside, DOW 10,745 is resistance. A break above this will lead us to DOW 10,815 brick wall. If an orgy commences DOW 10,863 is 100% fibonacci resistance from June 5th intraday and will likely lead us to DOW 11,000.
DOW 5 day RSI closed at lower midrange 5 day RSI 45.56. We still have more room for downside. However, the market seemed to get all lathered up by IBM's earnings report after the bell it traded +5 afterhours. However, we know MSFT and INTC did the same thing afterhours yesterday and they both got pummeled at the close today.
XAU death row support 54.25 got taken out and left for dead today to close at XAU 53.30 - near the lows of the day. Gold Bullion closed down $3.50 to close at 278.40. Now for tomorrow, if gold can close at or above 277 per ounce and I see XAU with down action, I will most likely go in for a trade in this XAU at tomorrow's close. Notice Rydex XAU Precious metals assets closed at new low 37.2 million signalling capitulation. I will go in for like a shark smelling blood if these above parameters are met. If 277 is decisively taken out I will let watch the XAU collapse further and stay away.
XAU closed at 5 day RSI oversold 25.71. I would love to see this sucker get down to extreme oversold RSI 20 or lower with above parameters.
NDX broke my key support 3,880 (9 day EMA)to close at NDX 3,843.98
NDX 5 day RSI closed at lower midrange 41.41 so again we still have downside room before a bounce. The 13 and 25 day MA's are at NDX 3,812 - 3,827 so this is nearterm support. We can have a one day false break close below this support level, but i would look for a bounce the following day if tomorrows close in within striking distance of taking it out. Worst case scenario is 50 day MA NDX 3,632 critical support - so we have plenty of breathing room here. Upside, a move back to the 5 day MA NDX 3,940 resistance area.
IIX closed at IIX 520.83 and needs to stay above its converging 50 and 200 day MA of 501-507 area. A break of IIX 500 implies an accelerating sell-off in NDX is imminent.
IIX closed at 5 day RSI 51.39
Best Regards, J.T. |
