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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (28376)	7/20/2000 1:01:24 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) of 54805

UF, << The sub rate growth of cdma is well below Tornado levels at this point >> This metric does bear watching. 50 million to 67 million first 6 months is a little marginal. Korea is affecting that. There is going to be a big kicker from the US however here on out as Verizon analog subs convert to cdma digital. Xmas is coming. CDG just projected (in mid June) 100 million subs by December 31. No way Jose, but my original estimate for the year was 90 million (I think CDG's was also) and we should come close to that. << and qcom's penetration of the 2G market makes me question whether they are really a Gorilla at all or just a big, powerful Chimp >> Still the fastest growing technology and the only one with proprietary open architecture. Still growing market share. CDG says 67 CAGR going forward for 400 million subs by 2004 end (without China) and that is possible with China, and that is substantial. << It's clear that they will be a Gorilla in the 2.5G./3G space but they're still a few quarters away from reaching Tornado levels >> No tornado yet in 2.5G and that wireless data tornado may be more than a few quarters away. I'm looking at 1xMC at 144 kbps as 2.5G. 3G is Multimedia and there is no tornado in sight, IMO. - Eric -

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