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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (28376)	7/20/2000 8:45:27 AM
From: 100cfm	Read Replies (4) of 54805

The sub rate growth of cdma is well below Tornado levels at this point, and qcom's penetration of the 2G market makes me question whether they are really a Gorilla at all or just a big, powerful Chimp (which is not a bad thing). Well according to the manual- NO Tornado=No Gorilla Also NO promises allowed. Q is now firmly in the catagory of Promising future earnings growth. Q is no Gorilla at this time. Some back of the envelope numbers QCT $338mm on 15mm chips= 22.50 per chip 100mm chips at 22.50=2.2bil. 2.2bil @ 32%=720mm GP (by the way the drop from 40% margin to 32%margin is the killer) Qtl 152mm for Qtr annualized at the 38% growth rate=828mm QWS 65mm for the Qtr annualized with no growth= 260mm $720mm +$828mm +$260mm Total=1.8bil*38% tax rate/by 740mm shares= 1.50 net earnings anybody want to put a pe on next yrs earnings. Even at a PE of 75 were only talking $112. 100

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