the NYSE looks good as you say, but NASDAQ has recently come off a parabolic rise.
I'm not so worried about the Nas, aside from certain select stocks. I believe that many of its more heavily weighted stocks will consolidate the gains they made last spring with a few, like MSFT, probably declining a bit more in the face of their greatly reduced revenue growth. That should unlease considerable money that can be directed toward the mid-caps.
We have to remember that the bubble in the Nas was created by a convergence of several variables involving Y2K fears. First we had the Fed extremely worried about the bug, thus they injected excessive liquidity into the system to cover any potential econonic shocks. Secondly, most "old economy" companies were having to spend large sums of money to buy the software and hardware produced by the "new economy" companies, thus reducing their own earnings while increasing the earnings of the tech stocks.
There was a huge amount of money spent on Y2K remediation and upgrades, which merely shifted from one part of the economy to the other. Now the question is that, once convinced of the benefits of technology and ecommerce, will more spending follow on to maintain the earnings and revenue momentum in the techs.
Regards,
Ron |
