It has to be acknowledged that yesterday's report not only
included low absolute numbers of subs and MoUs but also low
RATES of MoU/sub and net add rates of subscribers. I've
updated a two week old forecast taking into account the new
data as well as apparent slippage in GW deployments later
this year:
Month Net Ksubs Ksubs MMoU Qrtrly Qrtly GWs Cntries Net
Adds EoM (ave) MMoU Airtime (EoM) Add/GW
Rev
Dec-99 0
Jan 0.3 0.3 0.15 0.03 3 7 Italy, Brazil-1, Mexico
Feb 1 1.3 0.8 0.14 7 17 0.33 France, US, Canada-1,2
Mar 1.7 3 2.15 0.38 0.550 0.177 10 25 0.24 S. Korea, Nicaragua, Australia-1
Apr 2.4 5.4 4.2 0.2 15 33 0.24 Australia-2,3, Finland, Venezuela, Argentina
May 3.2 8.6 7 0.4 16 35 0.21 China-1
Jun 4.4 13 10.8 0.6 1.137 0.483 16 40 0.28
Jul 6 19 16 1.0 17 0.38 Peru
Aug 9 28 23.5 1.4 20 0.53 Brazil-2, Russia-1,2
Sep 13 41 34.5 2.1 4.44 1.565 21 0.65 Puerto Rico
Oct 18 59 50 4.5 23 0.86 Saudi Arabia, Russia-3
Nov 24 83 71 6.4 25 1.04 Brazil-3,Turkey
Dec-00 32 115 99 8.9 19.800 6.980 26 1.28 S. Africa
Annual 25.92765 9.20
Jan 40 155 135 16.2 27 1.54 China-1
Feb 50 205 180 21.6 28 1.85 China-2
Mar 60 265 235 28.2 66 23.265 28 2.14
The forecast suggests less than 10M$ in air time revs this
calendar year and revenue for the 12 months ending 3/31/01
of 31M$ vs loan covenants of 100M$. From a "glass half full"
perspective, EBITDA b/e would be reached in Apr01, Cash b/e
in August01, and EPS b/e by 12/01.
This is exactly one year behind the "plan" presented to
investors in May 1999. |
