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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT
GSAT 61.62-4.7%Jan 30 9:30 AM EST
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To: UncleverName who wrote (14710)7/20/2000 8:10:11 PM
From: Rocket Scientist  Read Replies (2) of 29987
 
Assumptions in ramp up model projections:

Starting with the known actuals (3K subs as of 3/31, 13K as of 6/30, 550K MOU and 177K$ Rev in Q1, and 1137K MOU and 483K$ Rev), I interpolated a ramp up of subscriber count for each month in the first two quarters that was consistent with these numbers.

For the future months, I assume a gradual increase over time in the net sub add rates, which are shown in the table.

I also made some assumptions in the MOU/sub/month figure: Q1 the actual was 178; in Q2, 52. With such small total numbers in these two Q's and the fuzzy status of the fixed terminals, I don't know which of these MoU/sub figures to believe is representative of the future, and this will be a critical parameter to watch in the future. My model assumes 60 MoU/sub/month in Q3, 90 in Q4, 120 in Q1'01, 150 in Q2'01 and thereafter.

The other parameter is $/minute. In Q1 the actual was $0.32/minute; in Q2 $0.42/minute. My model assumes $0.35/minute for the next few quarters (until the discounted 50M minutes are sold) and $0.47/minute thereafter.

I guess those are the main assumptions; the other numbers are either calculated or historical.
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