don't forget, we get three SOX upgrades a week anyway...once again, the contrarian position is that of suspecting a topping of the semi cycle, as suggested by the SSB analyst.
note, when the SOX and the semi cycle bottomed in late '98, also only one lone WS analyst came out and said so (i don't recall who it was).
many of the overoptimistic demand projections for cell phone handsets and PCs may in reality not come true - mind you, the numbers will no doubt be respectable, but is is highly likely that overordering of parts has taken place and as a consequence too much new capacity is coming online as well.
also the frequent assertions that the cycle is different, dead, what have you, remind me very much of the atmosphere at previous cycle tops.
if one has been in this sector for some time, one is sitting on huge profits anyway...why take a risk?
btw, the latest rally has also seen the options traders hop aboard like at no other stage since the advance began.
well, that's basically the contrarian 'sell the rallies' argument for the SOX...the buy buy buy argument you can hear ten times daily from WS, on CNBC, etc. |
