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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa
KLIC 37.57-3.7%Nov 13 3:59 PM EST
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To: Gottfried who wrote (3901)7/21/2000 1:11:48 AM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (3) of 5482
 
Red D, G.,

RE Semi EQuip Prices.

Stock prices are dependent upon perception of orders growth, or to be more precise, an imminent lack thereof.

Growth in orders is dependent upon a variety of factors:

1. Chip Demand being greater than fab capacity.
2. Technology buys to reduce costs within a fab; e.g. a shrink
3. Migration to a new technology - e.g. Cu, 300mm.

Perception of what growth is likely to be seldom matches reality. In the last cycle, very few saw its demise; and many rode it all the way to the bottom. Some of those got nailed in the 97 minicycle as well. Seems as if pretty near everyone is now swearing they won't make that mistake ever again.

So they've started making new ones. ... like selling before the current cycle even builds up a good head of steam.

Time will give the real answer. Now we're all taking our best guess.

But I'll bet that the market will force a lot of weak hands out long before this current up leg comes anywhere close to its natural death.

JMHO,
Ian.
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