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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: wlheatmoon who wrote (4953)	7/21/2000 9:17:26 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) of 436258

MKC: I posted a lengthy comment on the MB thread on Wednesday, resulting from a cross-country field trip just recently completed. PC sales are in free fall, primarily as a result of the corporate world having ceased to buy. Resellers have been filing for bankruptcy in droves, and if this doesn't tell the Wall Street crowd what is really going on, then nothing will. There is not going to be any change in this situation for at least a year or two, and corporate buying represents 2/3rds of all PC buying. PC retailers experienced a nice bump in sales this past spring when the Naz soared, but subsided every bit as quickly when the Naz slumped. Now retail sales are a mess. See post for more details. Since PCs soak up the lion's share of semis, the writing is well and truly on the wall. In spite of the Wall Street baloney, H2 is going to be a very nasty period for the entire PC/semi sector. Whether the stock market chooses to ignore this or not is an open question at the moment, but one thing is for sure and that is the numbers that will be reported by the sector this fall are going to be the stuff of which cremations are fueled. Incidentally, check out the numbers emanating from the telecom sector as well. The bloom is definitely coming off the rose here as well, although that sector is a year in trail behind the PC sector (again, IMHO). Box builders over-ordered semi products on the backside of that bump and are now saddled with big in-house semi inventories. I can tell you for a fact that one of the big box builders is quietly trying to unload a huge quantity of AMD micros (including plenty of high end micros) and the prices under discussion are a fraction of the current spot market (and the spot market for micros is already "soft"). AMD chips have been in much heavier demand than Intel's so the situation is deteriorating very quickly. Hope this helps and apologies for the delayed reply.. (I'm ploughing through a mass of past emails). Best, Earlie

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