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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread
VTI 330.06+0.2%Nov 7 4:00 PM EST
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To: Justa Werkenstiff who started this subject7/21/2000 1:14:44 PM
From: Dave-in-MarinCa  Read Replies (2) of 10065
 
Yield curve inverts with the spread between 10yr Treas Notes and 3mon T Bills at -8bps.
<http://www.stockcharts.com/charts/$YLD.html>
That corresponds to a probability of a recession 4 qtrs from now between 25 and 30% per Fed study. <http://www.ny.frb.org/rmaghome/curr_iss/ci2-7.pdf>
Absolute numbers are not as significant as the trend IMO.
When does the market start to reflect this??? Or has the Fed removed all risk???
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