My least favorite term is, "buying opportunity", but after thinking about the decline in shareholder value of AMAT, two hypotheses emerge. The sinister and the stupid. The sinister is that someone knows something we don't. The stupid is that people, especially analysts, paint the technology sector with a brush that is too broad. Specifically, parts shortages have hurt Agilent (which I also have the dubious honor of holding) and others and therefore the techs are in the outgroup. AMAT is included in this bunch.
However, this very shortage will lead AMAT to increase prices, sell more, and therefore profit more.
If my sinister hypothesis is correct, we're screwed. If my stupid hypothesis is correct, we'll do fine. Remember, H.L. Mencken stated, "No one got broke underestimating the intelligence of the public."
fred |
